Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	Mercadal		Santanyí

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.45	5.15
	1.57	3.62	5.73
	1.58	3.58	5.74
	1.57	3.3	5.5
	1.54	3.54	5.89
	1.57	3.5	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (2.04)	3.5 ↑ (2.93)	5.61 ↑ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mercadal
57.9%

Draw
25.9%

Santanyí
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

30.9%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

32.1%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mercadal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mercadal's performance.

Santanyí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santanyí might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mercadal than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mercadal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santanyí than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santanyí could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mercadal - Santanyí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

(1 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 11 (Play Offs: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mercadal won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mercadal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mercadal is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Mercadal won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mercadal won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Santanyi	5	2	3	0	5:3	2	9
12	Mercadal	5	1	2	2	6:7	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CE Mercadal
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
17.01.26	Son Cladera - Mercadal	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	Alcúdia - Mercadal	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	Mercadal - Mallorca B	0:2 ✺
20.12.25	Platges de Calvià - Mercadal	4:1 ✺
14.12.25	Mercadal - Formentera	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLLL
- CD Santanyí
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
18.01.26	Santanyí - Binissalem	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Santanyí - Felanitx	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Peña Deportiva - Santanyí	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Santanyí - Portmany	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Rotlet Molinar - Santanyí	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
13.09.25	Santanyí - Mercadal	3:0
19.01.25	Mercadal - Santanyí	3:2
06.04.24	Santanyí - Mercadal	1:0
18.11.23	Mercadal - Santanyí	2:1
23.04.23	Mercadal - Santanyí	1:0
07.01.23	Santanyí - Mercadal	1:0
26.03.22	Santanyí - Mercadal	0:1

Mercadal - Santanyí: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide