Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE SOUTH DIVISION - ROUND 11

Date: 29 October 2022, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Metropolitan Police

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.2
	2.5	3.8	2.22
	2.52	4.07	2.3
	2.58	3.82	2.25
	2.5	3.75	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.39)	3.81 ↑ (3.72)	2.25 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
35.9%

Draw
23.8%

Metropolitan Police
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

23.9%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

22.8%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Metropolitan Police has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metropolitan Police than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Merthyr Town - Metropolitan Police Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 2.

Merthyr is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Metropolitan Police is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
25.10.22	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	1:3 ✺
22.10.22	Merthyr Town - Harrow Borough	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
15.10.22	Merthyr Town - Folkestone Invicta	2:1 ✺
English Southern League South Division
11.10.22	North Leigh - Merthyr Town	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
01.10.22	Gloucester City - Merthyr Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 LTWWW
- Metropolitan Police
English Southern League South Division
25.10.22	Chesham United - Metropolitan Police	3:2 ✺
22.10.22	Salisbury - Metropolitan Police	1:4 ✺
18.10.22	Metropolitan Police - Poole Town	1:3 ✺
11.10.22	Metropolitan Police - Gosport Borough	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
08.10.22	Metropolitan Police - Hastings United	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
22.01.22	Merthyr Town - Metropolitan Police	2:3
16.10.21	Metropolitan Police - Merthyr Town	1:2
01.02.20	Merthyr Town - Metropolitan Police	1:2
31.08.19	Metropolitan Police - Merthyr Town	1:2
30.03.19	Metropolitan Police - Merthyr Town	2:0
15.09.18	Merthyr Town - Metropolitan Police	2:2

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