Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 26

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Dorchester Town

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.9	3.4
	1.75	4	3.55
	1.8	4.33	3.6
	1.75	3.98	3.64
	1.75	4	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.43)	4.04 ↓ (4.71)	3.55 ↓ (5.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
51.8%

Draw
22.5%

Dorchester Town
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

19.4%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

18.3%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Merthyr Town's form might have worsened.

Dorchester Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dorchester Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+15.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Merthyr Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorchester Town than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dorchester Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Merthyr will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 3.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

In this match Merthyr is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Merthyr to win the game is with odds 1.5.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 7 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 28:28 (average 1.6:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:19 (average 1.6:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
04.01.25	Tiverton Town - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
01.01.25	Merthyr Town - Gloucester City	2:2 ✺
28.12.24	Merthyr Town - Walton & Hersham	5:2 ✺
26.12.24	Hungerford Town - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
14.12.24	Poole Town - Merthyr Town	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTWWW
- Dorchester Town
English Southern League South Division
04.01.25	Havant & Waterlooville - Dorchester Town	1:1 ✺
01.01.25	Dorchester Town - Winchester City	1:0 ✺
28.12.24	Dorchester Town - Basingstoke Town	3:2 ✺
26.12.24	Poole Town - Dorchester Town	1:1 ✺
21.12.24	Dorchester Town - Tiverton Town	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
16.11.24	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	2:2
20.01.24	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	3:2
English FA Trophy
07.10.23	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	3:1
English Southern League South Division
05.08.23	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	3:2
25.03.23	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	0:2
25.10.22	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	1:3
05.03.22	Dorchester Town - Merthyr Town	1:3

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