Match Info

World Championship - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Banorte (Mexico City)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Ariana
Africa	Azam Sports 2, Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport PSL, ZAP
Albania	Klani IM, SuperSport 2, TV Klan
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Flow Eventos
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 6, beIN Sports MENA Max 6, beIN Sports MENA Max 6
Australia	SBS, SBS On Demand
Austria	ORF On, Servus TV
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Bangladesh	Toffee Live, T Sports
Belarus	Sport TV
Belgium	BNT News App, RTBF Auvio Direct, RTBF Tipik, Sporza, Sporza, VRT 1
Bolivia	Entel Gol 56, ENTEL TV, Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Disney+, Globoplay, Sky+, SporTV, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	BNT 1, BNT 3
Canada	RDS App, RDS, TSN 1, TSN 3, TSN 4, TSN 5, TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	Migu
Colombia	Win play, Win Sports
Costa-rica	TDMAX, Teletica 7, Teletica
Croatia	HRT 2, HRTi, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Czech-republic	Nova Action, Oneplay
Denmark	DR 1, TV2 Play
Dr-congo	RTNC
Ecuador	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, Teleamazonas
El-salvador	Canal 4, TCS GO, Tigo Sports
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Faroe-islands	Televarp
Fiji	FBC Sports
Finland	YLE Areena, YLE TV2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	ERT 1
Guatemala	Chapin, TeleOnce, Tigo Sports
Guinea	RTG
Hong-kong	Now Player
Hungary	M4 Sport
Iceland	RUV
India	ZEE5
Iran	Persiana Sports
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, NHK G TV
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, Klan Kosova
Kyrgyzstan	KTRK Sports
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	unifi playTV, Unifi TV
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet, TVM, Yes
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Canal 5, FOX+, FOX Sports, Nu9ve, TUDN, VIX, ViX Premium
Montenegro	TVCG 2
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	NPO 1, NPO Start, Ziggo Go
New-zealand	TVNZ+
Nicaragua	Tigo Sports
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2, TV2 Play
Pakistan	PTV Sports, Tapmad
Panama	Medcom GO, RPC, Telemetro, Tigo Sports
Paraguay	Canal Trece, GEN
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	Cignal Play, Pilipinas Live, TapGO TV
Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP 1, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	AntenaPLAY, Antena
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	meWATCH, Singtel TV GO
Slovakia	JOJ Play, STVR Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1, Slovenia TV2
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport PSL
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	JTBC, KBS 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Suriname	STVS
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4
Switzerland	Play RTS, Play RTS, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, ITV 1, ITV X, STV, STV Player, UTV
Uruguay	AUFTV, DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
Usa	FOX Network, FOX One, Fubo Sports Network, Futbol de Primera Radio, NBC Universo, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo, TUDN
Uzbekistan	Futbol TV, Zor TV
Venezuela	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360, VTV 3, VTV Go


	Mexico		Ecuador

	1	X	2
	2.30	2.70	4.10
	2.25	2.75	3.90
	2.33	2.70	3.90
	2.37	2.79	4.19
	2.2	3.03	4.08	Watch
	2.30	2.70	4.10
	2.26	2.75	4.44	Watch
	2.23	2.75	4.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.23)	2.77 ↓ (3.08)	4.09 ↑ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mexico
42%

Draw
34.6%

Ecuador
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

31.1%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

30.3%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mexico has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mexico than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ecuador than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.4%	27.7%	8.9%

Mexico - Ecuador Predictions

Users Predictions: 101 users predict this event. Mexico will win (votes: 64 - 63.4%). Ecuador will win (votes: 9 - 8.9%). It will Tie (votes: 28 - 27.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mexico: 54% – 72.8%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mexico (1.25) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH +0.25 - Ecuador (2.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.66) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

DNB - Mexico (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Mexico (1.54) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - under (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (1.79) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 14 - 60.9%). Ecuador (votes: 4 - 17.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rangel R. (G) Guadalajara Chivas 2. Sanchez J. PAOK 3. Montes C. (C) Lokomotiv Moscow 5. Vasquez J. Genoa 23. Gallardo J. Toluca 19. Mora G. Club Tijuana 6. Lira E. Cruz Azul 7. Romo L. Guadalajara Chivas 25. Alvarado R. Guadalajara Chivas 9. Jimenez R. Wolves 16. Quinones J. Al Qadsiah	1. Galindez H. (G) Huracan 21. Franco A. Atletico-MG 4. Ordonez J. Club Brugge 6. Pacho W. PSG 3. Hincapie P. Arsenal 9. Yeboah J. Venezia 23. Caicedo M. (C) Chelsea 15. Vite P. UNAM Pumas 20. Angulo N. Sunderland 19. Plata G. Flamengo RJ 13. Valencia E. Pachuca
Substitutes
12. Acevedo C. (G) Santos Laguna 4. Alvarez E. West Ham 20. Chavez Garcia M. AZ Alkmaar 24. Chavez L. Dynamo Moscow 8. Fidalgo A. Betis 11. Gimenez S. AC Milan 14. Gonzalez A. Guadalajara Chivas 26. Gutierrez B. Guadalajara Chivas 21. Huerta Valera C. S. Anderlecht 22. Martinez G. UNAM Pumas 13. Ochoa G. (G) AEL Limassol 17. Pineda O. AEK 15. Reyes I. Club America 18. Vargas O. Atl. Madrid 10. Vega A. Toluca	5. Alcivar J. Independiente del Valle 24. Arevalo J. VfB Stuttgart 16. Caicedo J. Huracan 18. Castillo D. Midtjylland 7. Estupinan P. AC Milan 26. Medina Y. Genk 14. Minda A. Atletico-MG 10. Paez K. River Plate 25. Porozo J. Club Tijuana 17. Preciado A. Atletico-MG 12. Ramirez M. (G) Kifisia 11. Rodriguez K. Royale Union SG 2. Torres F. Internacional 8. Valencia A. Antwerp 22. Valle G. (G) LDU Quito
Coaches
Aguirre J.	Beccacece S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Quinones J. ⚽, Alvarado R. (A),
31', 2 - 0, Jimenez R. ⚽, Quinones J. (A),
45+1', Franco A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Franco A. ↓, Medina Y. ↑,
46', Ordonez J. ↓, Preciado A. ↑,
58', Mora G. ↓, Gutierrez B. ↑,
59', Valencia E. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
73', Romo L. ↓, Vargas O. ↑,
74', Jimenez R. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
79', Yeboah J. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
79', Angulo N. ↓, Paez K. ↑,
80', Quinones J. ↓, Pineda O. ↑,
80', Alvarado R. ↓, Reyes I. ↑,
90+3', Paez K. 🟨,
90+5', Hincapie P. 🟥,
90+9', Caicedo M. 🟨,

Preview

Mexico is ranked FIFA: 14. Ecuador is ranked FIFA: 23.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mexico won 1.

Mexico has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ecuador is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mexico could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Mexico won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).

Standings

South America

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ecuador	18	8	8	2	14:5	9	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mexico
FIFA World Cup
24.06.26	Czech Republic - Mexico	0:3 ✺
18.06.26	Mexico - South Korea	1:0 ✺
11.06.26	Mexico - South Africa	2:0 ✺
Friendly
04.06.26	Mexico - Serbia	5:1 ✺
30.05.26	Mexico - Australia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWWW
- Ecuador
FIFA World Cup
25.06.26	Ecuador - Germany	2:1 ✺
20.06.26	Ecuador - Curaçao	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Ivory Coast - Ecuador	1:0 ✺
Friendly
07.06.26	Ecuador - Guatemala	3:0 ✺
30.05.26	Ecuador - Saudi Arabia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
14.10.25	Mexico - Ecuador	1:1
Copa America
30.06.24	Mexico - Ecuador	0:0
Friendly
05.06.22	Mexico - Ecuador	0:0
27.10.21	Mexico - Ecuador	2:3
09.06.19	Mexico - Ecuador	3:2
Copa America
19.06.15	Mexico - Ecuador	1:2
Friendly
28.03.15	Mexico - Ecuador	1:0

Mexico - Ecuador: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide