Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum (Oakland, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	ZhiBo8
Japan	NHK G TV, U-NEXT
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Canal 5, TUDN, ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Mexico		Japan

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.4
	2.37	3.3	2.8
	2.68	3.25	2.58
	2.71	3.37	2.6
	2.97	3.21	2.37	Watch
	2.81	3.47	2.66	Watch
	2.04	3.49	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.01)	3.36 ↓ (3.42)	2.57 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mexico
35.9%

Draw
27.8%

Japan
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

24.6%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mexico has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mexico's form might have worsened.

Japan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Mexico - Japan Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Mexico will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Japan will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Japan (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Mexico (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Mexico (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 4 - 80%). Japan (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Malagon L. (G) Club America 2. Sanchez J. Cruz Azul 3. Montes C. Lokomotiv Moscow 5. Vasquez J. Genoa 23. Gallardo J. Toluca 17. Pineda O. AEK 14. Ruiz M. Toluca 4. Alvarez E. (C) Fenerbahce 10. Vega A. Toluca 25. Alvarado R. Guadalajara Chivas 9. Jimenez R. Fulham	1. Suzuki Z. (C) Parma 22. Seko A. Le Havre 4. Itakura K. Ajax 3. Watanabe T. Feyenoord 6. Endo W. Liverpool 15. Kamada D. Crystal Palace 8. Minamino T. Monaco 10. Doan R. Eintracht Frankfurt 20. Kubo T. Real Sociedad 9. Ueda N. Kashima Antlers 7. Mitoma K. Brighton
Substitutes
7. Berterame G. Monterrey 26. Chavez Garcia M. AZ Alkmaar 11. Gimenez S. AC Milan 24. Huescas R. FC Copenhagen 16. Lainez D. Tigres UANL 6. Lira E. Cruz Azul 22. Lozano H. San Diego FC 13. Moreno C. (G) Pachuca 19. Orozco J. Cruz Azul 12. Rangel R. (G) Guadalajara Chivas 8. Rodriguez C. Cruz Azul 18. Sanchez E. Club America 15. Sanchez J. Tigres UANL	25. Araki H. Sanfrecce Hiroshima 17. Fujita J. St. Pauli 23. Hayakawa T. (G) Kashima Antlers 16. Hiroki S. Reims 24. Hosoya M. Kashiwa Reysol 14. Ito J. Genk 18. Machino S. B. Monchengladbach 11. Maeda D. Celtic 26. Mochizuki H. Machida Zelvia 5. Nagatomo Y. FC Tokyo 19. Ogawa K. Nijmegen 12. Osako K. (G) Sanfrecce Hiroshima 21. Sano K. Mainz 2. Sugawara Y. Werder Bremen 13. Suzuki Y. Freiburg
Coaches
Aguirre J.	Moriyasu H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Itakura K. ↓, Hiroki S. ↑,
60', Vega A. ↓, Lozano H. ↑,
61', Jimenez R. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
61', Pineda O. ↓, Sanchez E. ↑,
61', Alvarado R. ↓, Berterame G. ↑,
69', Kubo T. ↓, Maeda D. ↑,
69', Kamada D. ↓, Sano K. ↑,
69', Minamino T. ↓, Ito J. ↑,
75', Watanabe T. 🟨,
81', Mitoma K. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
81', Doan R. ↓, Machino S. ↑,
81', Ruiz M. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
90+2', Montes C. 🟥,

Preview

Neutral location - Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mexico won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mexico
Gold Cup
06.07.25	USA - Mexico	1:2 ✺
02.07.25	Mexico - Honduras	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Mexico - Saudi Arabia	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Mexico - Costa Rica	0:0 ✺
18.06.25	Suriname - Mexico	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWTW
- Japan
EAFF E-1
15.07.25	South Korea - Japan	0:1 ✺
12.07.25	Japan - China	2:0 ✺
08.07.25	Japan - Hong Kong	6:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
10.06.25	Japan - Indonesia	6:0 ✺
05.06.25	Australia - Japan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
17.11.20	Japan - Mexico	0:2
FIFA Confederations Cup
22.06.13	Japan - Mexico	1:2
Olympic Games - Football
07.08.12	Mexico - Japan	N/A

Mexico - Japan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide