Match Info

I Liqa - Round 5

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Mingachevir		Shimal

	1	X	2
	5.3	4.15	1.44
	3.54	4.6	1.57
	5.6	3.98	1.49	Watch
	5.15	4.25	1.45
	3.75	4.68	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.67 ↑ (1.89)	4.33 ↑ (3.35)	1.52 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mingachevir
19.4%

Draw
20.9%

Shimal
59.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mingachevir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-27.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mingachevir's form might have worsened.

Shimal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+33.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shimal's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	11.1%	88.9%

Mingachevir - Shimal Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Shimal will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shimal: 68.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mingachevir (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Shimal will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mingachevir (votes: 1 - 25%). Shimal (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
37', 0 - 1, Osmanov N. ⚽,
45+3', 0 - 2, Aliyev E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 1 - 2, Sixamirov N. ⚽,
87', 1 - 3, Mehraliyev G. ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 4, Niambele M. ⚽,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 9th in the I Liqa (Relegation) and 8th).

Mingachevir is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Mingachevir has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:1 (averaging 3:0.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mingachevir against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Shimal	6	2	2	2	13:11	2	8
8	Mingachevir	6	1	1	4	5:14	-9	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mingachevir FK
Azerbaijan First Division
09.10.26	MOIK Baku - Mingachevir	3:0 ✺
17.09.26	Mingachevir - Gəncəbasar	0:3 ✺
10.09.26	Səbail - Mingachevir	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Mingachevir - Zagatala	2:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.05.26	Gabala - Mingachevir	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- FK Shimal
Azerbaijan First Division
09.10.26	Shimal - Xankəndi	1:1 ✺
17.09.26	Shimal - Shahdag Qusar	1:4 ✺
11.09.26	MOIK Baku - Shimal	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Shimal - Cəbrayıl	1:2 ✺
21.05.26	Cəbrayıl - Shimal	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
09.04.26	Shimal - Mingachevir	0:3
07.02.26	Shimal - Mingachevir	0:3
16.10.25	Mingachevir - Shimal	3:1

Mingachevir - Shimal