Match Info

Premier League - Relegation - Final

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: SOCAR Polymer Arena (Sumqayit)

Referee: Qurbanov T. (Aze)


	Gabala		Mingachevir

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.7	6.4
	1.42	4.53	6.22	Watch
	1.4	4.2	6
	1.36	4.6	6.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.37)	4.51 ↓ (4.9)	6.33 ↓ (7.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gabala
65.3%

Draw
20.3%

Mingachevir
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

19%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70%

18.4%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gabala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Mingachevir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mingachevir than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Gabala - Mingachevir Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Gabala will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Agayev S. (G) 27. Ahmadov E. 13. Aliyev N. 16. Amoah I. 50. Ba Loua A. 33. Keita S. 14. Massoumou D. J. 28. Musayev M. (C) 30. Owusu P. 10. Shahniyarov S. 6. Sierra J.	1. Sadiqli O. (G) 10. Alizada Q. 60. Bayramov E. 16. Bayramov F. 32. Cafarli R. 33. Eyubov A. 11. Kalunga K. 70. Mammadov N. 15. Mammadov S. 22. Mustafayev E. 4. Quliyev K. (C)
Substitutes
24. Akinade I. 93. Cafarov R. (G) 74. Damadayev S. 3. Eduardo Kunde 22. Iskandarov F. 11. Mammadov A. 26. Mustafayev E. 70. Quimbila P. 66. Rashidov N. 12. Sangare I.	8. Abba U. 99. Cabrayilov C. 17. Farmanov T. 20. Haziyev B. 21. Kerimi R. 36. Mammadli A. 27. Mirzayev E. 81. Muradov K. 19. Novruzov N. 77. Safarov M. 9. Yunanov A.
Coaches
Tskhadadze K.	Mammadov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Eyubov A. (Own goal),
45+5', Bayramov E. 🟨,
45+5', 2 - 0, Keita S. (Penalty Awarded),
45+8', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Mammadov N. 🟨,
49', Bayramov E. ↓, Safarov M. ↑,
49', Mammadov N. ↓, Haziyev B. ↑,
53', Alizada Q. ↓, Abba U. ↑,
74', Ba Loua A. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,
76', Sangare I. 🟨,
83', Owusu P. ↓, Iskandarov F. ↑,
83', Shahniyarov S. ↓, Akinade I. ↑,
85', Bayramov F. ↓, Cabrayilov C. ↑,
85', Mustafayev E. ↓, Mirzayev E. ↑,
89', Akinade I. 🟨,
90+1', Musayev M. ↓, Damadayev S. ↑,
90+2', Massoumou D. J. ↓, Rashidov N. ↑,

Preview

Neutral location - SOCAR Polymer Arena.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Gabala is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:1. (average 2.8:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gabala won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 3:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Gabala	6	1	1	4	2:7	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
21.05.26	Gabala - Shamakhi	3:1 ✺
15.05.26	Karvan - Gabala	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Zira - Gabala	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWTLT
- Mingachevir FK
Azerbaijan First Division
22.05.26	Mingachevir - Səbail	4:1 ✺
15.05.26	Mingachevir - MOIK Baku	3:1 ✺
05.05.26	Shahdag Qusar - Mingachevir	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Mingachevir - Zagatala	7:1 ✺
22.04.26	Cəbrayıl - Mingachevir	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Cup
29.10.25	Gabala - Mingachevir	5:1
Azerbaijan First Division
28.03.25	Gabala - Mingachevir	2:0
24.12.24	Mingachevir - Gabala	0:2
26.09.24	Gabala - Mingachevir	2:0

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