Match Info

I Lyga - Round 25

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday


	Minija Kretinga		Neptūnas

	1	X	2
	1.34	4.5	7
	1.29	4.90	7.50
	1.37	4.56	6.10
	1.38	4.58	6.61	Watch
	1.35	4.50	6.00
	1.29	4.50	8.95
	1.36	4.4	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.47)	4.56 ↑ (4.03)	6.95 ↑ (5.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Minija Kretinga
67.3%

Draw
19.8%

Neptūnas
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

22.5%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66%

21.1%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Minija Kretinga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Minija Kretinga's performance.

Neptūnas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Minija Kretinga than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Minija Kretinga - Neptūnas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 2 - 0, ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ TOPLYGA and 4th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Minija won 2.

Minija arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Performances by Neptūnas have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Neptūnas could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The betting markets point to Minija as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Minija in today's match, at odds of 1.43.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Minija has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:18 (averaging 1.2:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Minija against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 7:7 goals (averaging 1.4:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FK Minija	25	22	1	2	68:13	55	67
4	Neptunas	25	14	2	9	33:30	3	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Minija Kretinga
Lithuanian Division 2
12.09.26	Dainava Alytus - Minija Kretinga	0:3 ✺
05.09.26	Minija Kretinga - Transinvest 2	3:0 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
01.09.26	Minija Kretinga - Dainava Alytus	3:2 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
28.08.26	FA Šiauliai B - Minija Kretinga	1:2 ✺
14.08.26	Ekranas - Minija Kretinga	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWWW
- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Division 2
11.09.26	Neptūnas - Jonava	2:0 ✺
07.09.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Neptūnas	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	3:1 ✺
22.08.26	BFA Vilnius - Neptūnas	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Neptūnas - Babrungas Plungė	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
16.05.26	Neptūnas - Minija Kretinga	1:3
27.07.25	Neptūnas - Minija Kretinga	0:1
15.03.25	Minija Kretinga - Neptūnas	0:4
20.09.24	Neptūnas - Minija Kretinga	1:1
03.05.24	Minija Kretinga - Neptūnas	2:2
12.08.23	Minija Kretinga - Neptūnas	2:0
24.03.23	Neptūnas - Minija Kretinga	0:0

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