Match Info

I Lyga - Round 22

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Neptūnas		Atmosfera Mažeikiai

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	2.87
	2.12	3.35	2.85
	2.21	3.14	2.97
	2.2	3.36	2.93	Watch
	2.16	3.10	2.90
	2.20	3.68	2.82
	2.2	3.5	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.13)	3.34 ↓ (3.45)	2.88 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neptūnas
41.5%

Draw
27.1%

Atmosfera Mažeikiai
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

26.2%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

25.5%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neptūnas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Atmosfera Mažeikiai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atmosfera Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', 1 - 1, ⚽,
69', 2 - 1, ⚽,
83', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Atmosfera may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:13. (average 2.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Neptūnas won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 2.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Neptunas	25	14	2	9	33:30	3	44
9	Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37:33	4	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Division 2
22.08.26	BFA Vilnius - Neptūnas	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Neptūnas - Babrungas Plungė	0:4 ✺
08.08.26	Tauras Tauragė - Neptūnas	0:2 ✺
01.08.26	Garliava - Neptūnas	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	Neptūnas - FA Šiauliai B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLWWW
- Atmosfera Mažeikiai
Lithuanian Division 2
22.08.26	Dainava Alytus - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Transinvest 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - FA Šiauliai B	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	3:1 ✺
25.07.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Hegelmann Litauen 2	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
25.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	1:3
27.09.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	4:2
23.05.25	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:0
03.08.24	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	1:0
08.03.24	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	2:0
12.11.22	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	4:2
06.07.22	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	2:2

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