Match Info

MLS

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Allianz Field (Saint Paul, MN)

Referee: Simon N. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	Amazon Prime Video
China	QQ Sports
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Minnesota United		Sporting Kansas City

	1	X	2
	1.45	5.25	5.25	Watch
	1.57	4.5	4.75
	1.47	4.95	5.9
	1.5	5.17	5.7
	1.46	5.43	5.10	Watch
	1.52	4.89	5.55	Watch
	1.55	4.6	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.53)	4.97 ↑ (4.25)	5.29 ↓ (5.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Minnesota United
63%

Draw
19.1%

Sporting Kansas City
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

22.1%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

21.8%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Minnesota United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Sporting Kansas City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Minnesota United than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Kansas City than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Minnesota United - Sporting Kansas City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Minnesota (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Kansas City (2.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Minnesota (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Minnesota (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Minnesota (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Minnesota United will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Minnesota (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Kansas City (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. St.Clair D. (G) 28. Diaz J. 23. Duggan M. 15. Boxall M. 13. Markanich A. 21. Hlongwane B. 25. Triantis N. 20. Trapp W. 8. Rosales J. 17. Lod R. 26. Pereyra J.	1. Pulskamp J. (G) 17. Davis J. 4. Voloder R. 2. James I. 23. Montes A. 18. Ndenbe L. 22. Bassong Z. 6. Radoja N. 8. Rodriguez M. 9. Joveljic D. 13. Toye M.
Substitutes
33. Chandler K. 29. Dieng M. 31. Dotson H. 7. Fitz D. 30. Gene O. 24. Gressel J. 98. Randell A. 5. Romero N. 1. Smir A. (G)	30. Afrifa S. 16. Bartlett J. 14. Leibold T. 15. Miller J. 7. Munoz S. 10. Salloi D. 36. Schewe R. (G) 11. Shelton K. 26. Thommy E.
Coaches
Ramsay E.	Zavagnin K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Markanich A. ⚽, Pereyra J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Bassong Z. 🟨,
60', 2 - 0, Pereyra J. ⚽,
64', 3 - 0, Markanich A. ⚽, Triantis N. (A),
64', Rodriguez M. ↓, Thommy E. ↑,
75', Markanich A. ↓, Romero N. ↑,
75', Ndenbe L. ↓, Leibold T. ↑,
75', Toye M. ↓, Salloi D. ↑,
75', Radoja N. ↓, Munoz S. ↑,
81', Lod R. ↓, Gene O. ↑,
81', Trapp W. ↓, Dotson H. ↑,
82', Triantis N. ↓, Fitz D. ↑,
86', Hlongwane B. ↓, Gressel J. ↑,
88', Bassong Z. ↓, Bartlett J. ↑,
90+1', Davis J. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 14).

Minnesota is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 3.

Recent performances by Minnesota have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kansas City is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Minnesota is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Minnesota: Harvey C. (Leg Injury) Jung Ho-yeon (Knee Injury) Yeboah K. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Kansas City: Garcia M. (Muscle Injury) Leibold T. (Chest Injury) Suleymanov S. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Kansas City: Brody A. (Muscle Injury) Fernandez J. (Hamstring Injury) Thommy E. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 27:29. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Minnesota won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Minnesota United
MLS
27.09.25	Colorado Rapids - Minnesota United	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Minnesota United - Chicago Fire	0:3 ✺
US Open Cup
17.09.25	Minnesota United - Austin FC	1:2 ET ✺
MLS
13.09.25	San Diego - Minnesota United	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Minnesota United - Portland Timbers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLLWT
- Sporting Kansas City
MLS
27.09.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Sporting Kansas City	4:1 ✺
20.09.25	Sporting Kansas City - Vancouver Whitecaps	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Real Salt Lake - Sporting Kansas City	2:1 ✺
07.09.25	Sporting Kansas City - Austin FC	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Sporting Kansas City - Colorado Rapids	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
15.03.25	Sporting Kansas City - Minnesota United	3:3
21.09.24	Sporting Kansas City - Minnesota United	0:2
01.06.24	Minnesota United - Sporting Kansas City	3:1
27.04.24	Minnesota United - Sporting Kansas City	2:1
21.10.23	Sporting Kansas City - Minnesota United	3:1
16.09.23	Minnesota United - Sporting Kansas City	0:1
13.05.23	Sporting Kansas City - Minnesota United	3:0

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