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Current Win Probability
Minnesota United 36.8%
Draw 25.2%
St. Louis City 38%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
41.8%
25.9%
32.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.7%
25.2%
33.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Minnesota United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)
St. Louis City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Louis City's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Minnesota United than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Louis City than the current prediction. (-4.8%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
33.3%
16.7%
Minnesota United - St. Louis City Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Minnesota will win (votes: 3 - 50%). St. Louis City will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
New Consensus by Tipsters:
O/U 2.5 - over (1.53) (votes: 88%) โญ Best Value.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Callender D. (G) 52. Valerius C. 28. Diaz J. 23. Duggan M. 21. Hlongwane B. 25. Triantis N. 20. Trapp W. (C) 13. Markanich A. 18. Gonzalez M. 16. Jackson A. 9. Yeboah K.
1. Burki R. (C) 99. Orozco J. 32. Baumgartl T. 27. Fall F. 59. Joyner M. 21. Polvara D. 28. Perez M. 14. Totland T. 77. Jeong S. 9. Rafael Navarro 11. Becher S.
Substitutes
15. Boxall M. 22. Caldeira M. 8. Chancalay T. 3. Duncan K. 30. Gene O. 11. Malone M. 26. Pereyra J. 94. Rizvanovich K. (G) 5. Romero N.
18. Brunet C. 42. Downs D. 24. Edelman D. 19. Holse C. 39. Lundt B. (G) 5. MacNaughton L. 23. Matan A. 7. Ostrak T. 20. Rafael Santos
Coaches
Knowles C.
Damet Y.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Rafael Navarro ⚽,
10', 0 - 2, Jeong S. ⚽, Rafael Navarro (A),
24', Jackson A. 🟨,
26', Perez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Totland T. ↓, Rafael Santos ↑,
46', Polvara D. ↓, Edelman D. ↑,
49', 1 - 2, Jackson A. ⚽, Yeboah K. (A),
51', Jeong S. 🟨,
68', 2 - 2, Yeboah K. ⚽, Gonzalez M. (A),
69', Jeong S. ↓, MacNaughton L. ↑,
69', Becher S. ↓, Downs D. ↑,
70', Gonzalez M. ↓, Caldeira M. ↑,
79', Jackson A. ↓, Pereyra J. ↑,
82', Joyner M. ↓, Ostrak T. ↑,
86', 3 - 2, Caldeira M. ⚽, Pereyra J. (A),
90', Diaz J. 🟨,
90+2', Yeboah K. ↓, Chancalay T. ↑,
90+2', Valerius C. ↓, Boxall M. ↑,
Preview
A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 13th and 2nd in the Promotion - MLS Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 4.
Minnesota is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
St. Louis City is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Minnesota: Markanich A.
(Concussion)
Smir A.
(Knee Injury)
Stroud P.
(Muscle Injury).
Confirmed absences for St. Louis City: Celio Pompeu
(Knee Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for St. Louis City: Wallem C.
(Injury).
In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Minnesota has recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:11 (averaging 2.4:1.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Minnesota against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 11:5 goals (averaging 2.8:1.3 per game).
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Callender D. (G) 
Valerius C. 
Diaz J. 
Duggan M. 
Hlongwane B. 
Triantis N. 
Yeboah K. 
Burki R. (C) 
Fall F. 
Totland T. 
Jeong S. 
Rafael Navarro 
Boxall M. 
Caldeira M. 
Chancalay T. 
Duncan K. 
Gene O. 
Holse C. 
Matan A. 
Ostrak T. 
