Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 21 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Allianz Field (Saint Paul, MN)


	Minnesota United		St. Louis City

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3.3	2.8
	1.92	3.55	3.6
	1.98	3.59	3.72
	1.93	3.62	3.67	Watch
	1.8	3.5	3.7
	1.95	3.52	3.78	Watch
	1.92	3.55	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.82)	3.5 ↓ (3.58)	3.5 ↓ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Minnesota United
47.1%

Draw
26.4%

St. Louis City
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

26%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

25.2%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Minnesota United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

St. Louis City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Minnesota United than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Minnesota United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Louis City than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Minnesota United - St. Louis City Predictions

Users Predictions: Minnesota United will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Minnesota United will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Speel W. (G) 23. Duggan M. 22. Jung Ho-yeon 5. Romero N. 21. Hlongwane B. 67. Harvey C. 30. Gene O. 24. Gressel J. 13. Markanich A. 7. Jeong S. 9. Yeboah K.	1. Burki R. (C) 22. Hiebert K. 32. Baumgartl T. 3. Girdwood-Reich J. 8. Durkin C. 17. Hartel M. 38. Horn J. 36. Teuchert C. 15. Yaro J. 6. Wallem C. 9. Joao Klauss
Substitutes
15. Boxall M. 17. Lod R. 14. Oluwaseyi T. 26. Pereyra J. 1. Smir A. (G) 27. Taylor D. 20. Trapp W.	11. Becher S. 39. Lundt B. (G) 7. Ostrak T. 12. Pompeu C. 45. Silva X. 20. Watts A. 71. Zalinsky J.
Coaches
Ramsay E.	Mellberg O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Yeboah K. ⚽, Gressel J. (A),
24', Durkin C. 🟨,
26', Harvey C. 🟨,
42', Markanich A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Horn J. ↓, Watts A. ↑,
46', Romero N. ↓, Taylor D. ↑,
46', Harvey C. ↓, Boxall M. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Hartel M. ⚽, Baumgartl T. (A),
63', Gressel J. ↓, Pereyra J. ↑,
64', Hlongwane B. ↓, Lod R. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Joao Klauss ⚽, Hartel M. (A),
67', Girdwood-Reich J. ↓, Zalinsky J. ↑,
67', Wallem C. ↓, Ostrak T. ↑,
79', Joao Klauss ↓, Becher S. ↑,
79', Durkin C. ↓, Silva X. ↑,
79', Jung Ho-yeon ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Markanich A. ⚽, Pereyra J. (A),
88', 3 - 2, Markanich A. ⚽, Pereyra J. (A),

Preview

Minnesota is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

St. Louis City is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Minnesota is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 2.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Minnesota won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Minnesota United
MLS
17.05.25	Minnesota United - St. Louis City	3:0 ✺
14.05.25	Houston Dynamo - Minnesota United	2:0 ✺
10.05.25	Minnesota United - Inter Miami	4:1 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	Louisville City - Minnesota United	0:1 ✺
MLS
03.05.25	Austin FC - Minnesota United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWWW
- St. Louis City SC
MLS
17.05.25	Minnesota United - St. Louis City	3:0 ✺
14.05.25	St. Louis City - Sporting Kansas City	2:2 ✺
10.05.25	St. Louis City - San Diego	1:2 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	St. Louis City - Union Omaha	2:0 ✺
MLS
03.05.25	Seattle Sounders - St. Louis City	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
17.05.25	Minnesota United - St. Louis City	3:0
19.10.24	Minnesota United - St. Louis City	4:1
14.09.24	St. Louis City - Minnesota United	1:3
23.09.23	Minnesota United - St. Louis City	1:2
01.04.23	St. Louis City - Minnesota United	0:1

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