Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 14

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Aurinegro (Santiago del Estero)


	Mitre		San Miguel

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.57	3.5	Watch
	2.52	2.62	3.15	Watch
	2.71	2.68	3.34
	2.67	2.56	3.34	Watch
	2.63	2.5	3.2
	2.55	2.54	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.13)	2.58 ↓ (2.75)	3.29 ↓ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mitre
35.8%

Draw
36%

San Miguel
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

33.9%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

33.6%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mitre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mitre's form might have worsened.

San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Miguel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mitre than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mitre, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Miguel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Mitre - San Miguel Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. San Miguel will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ledesma J. (G) 4. Antunes I. 2. Minissale P. 6. Abello D. 3. Ferrari F. 8. Vazquez M. 5. Alessandroni J. 10. Rosales S. 7. Ramirez A. 9. Machado M. 11. Gonzalez R.	1. Lungarzo J. (G) 4. Adin D. 2. Coronel F. 6. Ceceri K. 3. Cardozo F. 8. Desabato L. 5. Ramirez I. 10. Almeida F. 11. Cruz A. 7. Oses M. 9. Ferrero J.
Substitutes
16. Avaro E. 18. Correa L. 15. Lopez A. 17. Maldonado M. 14. Mieres B. 19. Montenegro M. 12. Pietrobono I. (G) 13. Romero M. 20. Zarate J.	13. Aguirre F. 16. Benitez M. 15. De la Cruz E. 20. Delgado L. 17. Jerez T. 12. Ledesma Reynoso M. (G) 18. Muller D. 19. Nasta B. 14. Serra M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Adin D. 🟥,
26', Abello D. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Machado M. (Penalty Awarded),
29', Desabato L. 🟨,
31', Vazquez M. 🟨,
33', Desabato L. 🟨,
35', Abello D. ↓, Romero M. ↑,
40', Almeida F. ↓, Serra M. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Ferrero J. ↓, Delgado L. ↑,
57', 2 - 0, Antunes I. ⚽,
58', 🟨,
59', Antunes I. 🟨,
59', Vazquez M. ↓, Montenegro M. ↑,
59', Gonzalez R. ↓, Maldonado M. ↑,
60', Oses M. ↓, Nasta B. ↑,
60', Antunes I. ↓, Mieres B. ↑,
78', Machado M. ↓, Zarate J. ↑,
79', Cruz A. ↓, De la Cruz E. ↑,
79', Ramirez I. ↓, Benitez M. ↑,
83', 3 - 0, Rosales S. ⚽, Ramirez A. (A),
89', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 12)

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

San Miguel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mitre is a strong favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Mitre
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.05.26	San Telmo - Mitre	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Mitre - Acassuso	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Chaco For Ever - Mitre	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Mitre - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Central Norte - Mitre	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TWTLT
- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.05.26	San Miguel - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:1 ✺
30.04.26	All Boys - San Miguel	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	San Miguel - Los Andes	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Godoy Cruz - San Miguel	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	San Miguel - Deportivo Morón	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 TTLTW

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