Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 12

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Aurinegro (Santiago del Estero)


	Mitre		Acassuso

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	5.25	Watch
	1.65	3.3	5.5
	1.72	3.37	6.26
	1.68	3.2	6.34	Watch
	1.7	3.2	5
	1.65	3.22	5.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.72)	3.3 ↑ (3.16)	5.63 ↓ (5.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mitre
55.4%

Draw
28.1%

Acassuso
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

29.5%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

23%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mitre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Acassuso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mitre than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mitre that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Acassuso than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Mitre - Acassuso Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mitre (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Mitre will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ledesma J. (G) 4. Antunes I. 2. Minissale P. 6. Abello D. 3. Ferrari F. 8. Romero M. 5. Alessandroni J. (C) 10. Rosales S. 11. Correa L. 7. Salto C. 9. Machado M.	1. Monllor M. (G) 4. Etcheverri R. 13. Bellatti S. D. N. 6. Ghiraldello J. 3. Ruiz A. 16. Raccio J. 5. De Stefano D. 8. Dubini K. (C) 10. Hermoso A. 9. Rodriguez T. 20. Senn F.
Substitutes
14. Avaro E. 13. Ferreyra T. 18. Gonzalez R. 15. Lopez A. 19. Maldonado M. 16. Mieres B. 12. Pietrobono I. (G) 17. Ramirez A. 20. Zarate J.	17. Acosta N. 12. Atamanuk C. (G) 14. Dordoni B. 19. Gomez Y. 18. Petillo N. 2. Pioli L. 11. Rey L. 7. Reynoso R. 15. Roberts D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Machado M. ⚽,
23', Reynoso R. 🟨,
43', Minissale P. 🟨,
45+1', Pioli L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Etcheverri R. 🟨,
52', Dubini K. 🟨,
60', Dubini K. ↓, Acosta N. ↑,
61', Rey L. ↓, Raccio J. ↑,
62', Salto C. ↓, Ramirez A. ↑,
62', Correa L. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
65', Antunes I. 🟨,
65', Acosta N. 🟨,
73', Hermoso A. ↓, Senn F. ↑,
76', Machado M. ↓, Zarate J. ↑,
80', 2 - 0, Zarate J. ⚽, Ramirez A. (A),
81', Zarate J. 🟨,
87', Romero M. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
87', Rosales S. ↓, Avaro E. ↑,
87', Reynoso R. ↓, Gomez Y. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Mitre has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Acassuso has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Mitre is the clear favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Mitre
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.26	Chaco For Ever - Mitre	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Mitre - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Central Norte - Mitre	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Mitre - Deportivo Madryn	1:3 ✺
29.03.26	Güemes - Mitre	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLTLT
- Club Atlético Acassuso
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.26	Acassuso - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
22.04.26	Acassuso - Gimnasia La Plata	0:3 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
18.04.26	All Boys - Acassuso	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Acassuso - Los Andes	0:1 ✺
08.04.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Acassuso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTLL

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