Match Info

NORWAY: OBOS-LIGAEN - ROUND 3

Date: 24 April 2023, Monday

Location: Consto Arena (Mjøndalen)

Referee: Stofringshaug M. (Nor)


	Mjøndalen		Fredrikstad

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.3	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.2
	3	3.5	2.2
	3.12	3.65	2.22
	2.88	3.25	2.2
	3	3.58	2.25	Watch
	2.95	3.3	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.31)	3.43 ↑ (3.1)	2.23 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mjøndalen
31.2%

Draw
27.1%

Fredrikstad
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

29.1%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

30.9%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mjøndalen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mjøndalen's form might have worsened.

Fredrikstad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fredrikstad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mjøndalen than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mjøndalen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fredrikstad than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fredrikstad, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	28.6%	50%

Mjøndalen - Fredrikstad Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Mjøndalen will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Fredrikstad will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fredrikstad: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mjøndalen won 1.

Mjøndalen is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fredrikstad is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Fredrikstad have a series of home games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Mjøndalen won 6 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 20-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Mjøndalen won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mjøndalen IF
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
16.04.23	Kongsvinger - Mjøndalen	2:0 ✺
10.04.23	Mjøndalen - Åsane	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.04.23	Start - Mjøndalen	3:3 ✺
25.03.23	Strømsgodset - Mjøndalen	4:0 ✺
11.03.23	Mjøndalen - Moss	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTTLL
- Fredrikstad FK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
16.04.23	Fredrikstad - Moss	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Kristiansund - Fredrikstad	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.04.23	Fredrikstad - KFUM-Kameratene Oslo	2:0 ✺
26.03.23	Fredrikstad - Skeid	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Fredrikstad - Sarpsborg 08	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
11.02.23	Mjøndalen - Fredrikstad	0:3
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
02.10.22	Fredrikstad - Mjøndalen	2:1
25.04.22	Mjøndalen - Fredrikstad	2:0
Club Friendly
04.02.22	Fredrikstad - Mjøndalen	1:0
25.04.21	Mjøndalen - Fredrikstad	1:4
05.02.21	Fredrikstad - Mjøndalen	Canceled
22.02.20	Fredrikstad - Mjøndalen	2:1

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