Match Info

OBOS-ligaen - Round 8

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Consto Arena (Mjøndalen)

Referee: Kellerhals M. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1


	Mjøndalen		Lillestrøm SK

	1	X	2
	11	6.5	1.2	Watch
	11	6.25	1.2
	13	7	1.2	Watch
	12.3	7.01	1.2
	12.38	6.3	1.21	Watch
	13	6	1.18
	13	6.6	1.2	Watch
	13	7	1.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	12.34 ↑ (8.47)	6.58 ↑ (5.35)	1.2 ↓ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mjøndalen
7.6%

Draw
14.2%

Lillestrøm SK
78.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.1%

17.5%

71.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.5%

16.5%

75.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mjøndalen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Lillestrøm SK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lillestrøm SK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mjøndalen than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lillestrøm SK than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Mjøndalen - Lillestrøm SK Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mjøndalen (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Lillestrøm (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.75 - Lillestrøm (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lillestrøm SK will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mjøndalen (votes: 1 - 25%). Lillestrøm (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Solberg K. (G) 26. Eriksen S. 5. Midtgarden E. (C) 2. Vik I. 23. Agelin T. 17. Bata K. 6. Skau J. 28. Sawaneh E. 37. Singh B. 7. Reutersward L. 20. Conteh A.	12. Hedenstad M. (G) 2. Ranger L. 28. Gabrielsen R. (C) 5. Foss S. 11. Elkaer F. 8. Karlsbakk M. 18. Krygard K. 17. Kitolano E. 15. Drammeh S. 33. Diop M. 20. Felix Va
Substitutes
24. Birk D. 11. Bruusgaard J. 30. Holst-Larsen F. 14. Midtgard O. 40. Pettersson J. (G) 10. Saetherbo K.	14. Adedeji J. 23. Asen G. 1. Hagerup S. (G) 64. Larsson E. 21. Ogboji T. 10. Olsen T. 19. Tonnesen K. 27. Waehler M. 32. Woxen H.
Coaches
Nicol K.	Odegaard H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
4', 0 - 1, Karlsbakk M. ⚽, Kitolano E. (A),
9', 0 - 2, Kitolano E. ⚽, Karlsbakk M. (A),
24', Krygard K. ↓, Asen G. ↑,
36', 0 - 3, Drammeh S. ⚽, Karlsbakk M. (A),
38', Kitolano E. 🟨,
38', Singh B. 🟨,
41', Reutersward L. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 4, Kitolano E. ⚽, Karlsbakk M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Reutersward L. ↓, Saetherbo K. ↑,
46', Midtgarden E. ↓, Bruusgaard J. ↑,
60', Bata K. 🟨,
65', Diop M. ↓, Olsen T. ↑,
65', Gabrielsen R. ↓, Tonnesen K. ↑,
65', Ranger L. ↓, Larsson E. ↑,
76', 0 - 5, Felix Va ⚽, Elkaer F. (A),
76', Bata K. ↓, Midtgard O. ↑,
76', Sawaneh E. ↓, Birk D. ↑,
80', Kitolano E. ↓, Woxen H. ↑,
86', 0 - 6, Felix Va ⚽, Karlsbakk M. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Eliteserien).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mjøndalen won 1.

Mjøndalen is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lillestrøm is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mjøndalen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Mjøndalen has had a series of away games.

In this match, Lillestrøm is the clear favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Mjøndalen won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:26. (average 1.2:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Mjøndalen won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.4:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mjøndalen IF
Norwegian NM Cup
20.05.25	Stabæk - Mjøndalen	4:3 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
16.05.25	Stabæk - Mjøndalen	4:0 ✺
11.05.25	Mjøndalen - Ranheim	1:4 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
07.05.25	Strømmen - Mjøndalen	1:3 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
03.05.25	Sogndal - Mjøndalen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLWL
- Lillestrøm SK
Norwegian NM Cup
21.05.25	Lillestrøm SK - Fredrikstad	2:1 penalties ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
16.05.25	Lillestrøm SK - Kongsvinger	2:0 ✺
12.05.25	Skeid - Lillestrøm SK	1:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
07.05.25	Grorud - Lillestrøm SK	2:3 ET ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
03.05.25	Lillestrøm SK - Moss	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
02.03.24	Lillestrøm SK - Mjøndalen	0:0
Norwegian Eliteserien
28.08.21	Mjøndalen - Lillestrøm SK	1:2
04.07.21	Lillestrøm SK - Mjøndalen	2:1
Club Friendly
02.05.21	Mjøndalen - Lillestrøm SK	2:1
15.02.20	Lillestrøm SK - Mjøndalen	5:1
Norwegian Eliteserien
12.08.19	Lillestrøm SK - Mjøndalen	3:2
16.05.19	Mjøndalen - Lillestrøm SK	2:2

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