Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 2

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA French 1
Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5P
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Ligue 1+
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Disney+, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	Okko Prime
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Monaco		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.50	3.20	Watch
	2.20	3.50	3.10
	2.12	3.45	3.20	Watch
	2.26	3.60	3.35
	2.22	3.73	3.03	Watch
	2.25	3.50	3.25
	2.25	3.57	3.27	Watch
	2.20	3.50	3.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.59)	3.54 ↓ (3.77)	3.19 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
43.1%

Draw
26.9%

Olympique Marseille
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

25.3%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

25.9%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monaco's performance.

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Olympique Marseille might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monaco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Olympique Marseille could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35%	40%	25%

Monaco - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Monaco will win (votes: 7 - 35%). Marseille will win (votes: 5 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 18.5% – 61.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hradecky L. (G) 2. Vanderson 72. Sane S. 15. Dier E. 20. Nazinho 8. Camara L. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 28. Coulibaly M. 10. Golovin A. 17. Idumbo S. 29. Brunner P.	12. De Lange J. (G) 22. Weah T. (C) 4. Egan-Riley C. 19. Kondogbia G. 33. Emerson 8. Abdelli H. 23. Hojbjerg P. 77. Harit A. 7. Gomes A. 27. Timber Q. 9. Gouiri A.
Substitutes
11. Abline M. 47. Benzahra S. 14. Biereth M. 7. Detourbet M. 5. Kehrer T. 16. Kohn P. (G) 13. Mawissa C. 46. Soubeir A. 4. Teze J.	48. Abdallah K. 21. Aguerd N. 13. Cornelius D. 25. Garcia U. 11. Maupay N. 43. Mmadi T. 29. Moumbagna F. 6. Nnadi T. 92. Vermot T. (G)
Coaches
Filipe Luis	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Brunner P. ⚽, Golovin A. (A),
42', Zakaria D. 🟨,
43', Camara L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Abdelli H. ↓, Nnadi T. ↑,
46', Timber Q. ↓, Abdallah K. ↑,
54', 2 - 0, Brunner P. ⚽, Dier E. (A),
59', Kondogbia G. ↓, Aguerd N. ↑,
74', Nnadi T. ↓, Maupay N. ↑,
82', Golovin A. ↓, Abline M. ↑,
82', Coulibaly M. ↓, Soubeir A. ↑,
82', Brunner P. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,
85', Idumbo S. ↓, Detourbet M. ↑,
85', Gomes A. ↓, Moumbagna F. ↑,
89', Nazinho 🟨,
90+2', Hradecky L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 2.

Monaco is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Marseille's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Monaco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Monaco has had a series of away games.

Recently, Marseille has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Monaco: Balogun F. (Injury) Fati A. (Calf Injury) Minamino T. (Knee Injury) Salisu M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Balerdi L. (Calf Injury) Paixao I. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 39:32. (average 2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Monaco won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:18. (average 2.6:1.8).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Monaco: 8.18% Marseille: 1.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Last Results with these Odds

Monaco - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.87%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Monaco - Górnik Zabrze	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
23.08.26	Le Havre - Monaco	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.08.26	Górnik Zabrze - Monaco	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Coventry City - Monaco	2:0 ✺
09.08.26	Liverpool - Monaco	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWLW
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
21.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
05.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Al-Shahania	3:0 ✺
30.07.26	Olympique Marseille - Nîmes	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Olympique Marseille - Nice	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
05.04.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:1
14.12.25	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	1:0
12.04.25	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	3:0
01.12.24	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	2:1
27.01.24	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	2:2
30.09.23	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	3:2
28.01.23	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	1:1

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