What is the expert prediction for Olympique Marseille vs Strasbourg?

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Olympique Marseille vs Strasbourg Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, February 14, 2026)

Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 22

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 5 Norte
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Olympique Marseille		Strasbourg

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.8	3.6	Watch
	1.95	3.7	3.7	Watch
	1.95	3.94	3.92
	1.86	3.93	3.93	Watch
	1.85	3.7	3.7
	1.95	3.97	3.97	Watch
	1.87	3.8	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.67)	3.83 ↓ (4.16)	3.83 ↓ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
50.1%

Draw
24.9%

Strasbourg
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

22.7%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.3%

25.4%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olympique Marseille's form might have worsened.

Strasbourg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Strasbourg than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Strasbourg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.1%	17.1%	5.7%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -1 - Strasbourg (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Marseille (1.28) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (27 of 34 users predict this - 79.41%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.82% – 93%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Olympique Marseille will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Marseille (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Strasbourg (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 27. Timber Q. 10. Greenwood M. 26. Nadir B. 17. Aubameyang P. 9. Gouiri A.	39. Penders M. (G) 22. Doue G. (C) 24. Hogsberg L. 2. Omobamidele A. 3. Chilwell B. 32. Barco V. 29. El Mourabet S. 7. Moreira D. 19. Enciso J. 20. Godo M. 9. Panichelli J.
Substitutes
8. Abdelli H. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 19. Kondogbia G. 32. Medina F. 11. Nwaneri E. 14. Paixao I. 20. Traore H. J. 18. Vermeeren A.	17. Amougou M. 5. Anselmino A. 15. Fofana D. D. 1. Johnsson K. (G) 83. Luis R. 18. Mwanga J. 11. Nanasi S. 42. Ouattara A. 80. Yassine G.
Coaches
Abardonado J.	O'Neil G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Greenwood M. ⚽, Gouiri A. (A),
26', Pavard B. 🟨,
42', Aguerd N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', El Mourabet S. ↓, Ouattara A. ↑,
47', 2 - 0, Gouiri A. ⚽,
63', Enciso J. ↓, Nanasi S. ↑,
64', Hogsberg L. ↓, Yassine G. ↑,
71', Nadir B. ↓, Abdelli H. ↑,
71', Aubameyang P. ↓, Paixao I. ↑,
72', Paixao I. 🟨,
73', 2 - 1, Nanasi S. ⚽, Godo M. (A),
83', Panichelli J. 🟨,
85', Gouiri A. ↓, Medina F. ↑,
86', Chilwell B. ↓, Fofana D. D. ↑,
90+7', 2 - 2, Panichelli J. (Penalty Awarded),
90+8', Weah T. 🟨,
90+9', Yassine G. ↓, Anselmino A. ↑,
90+9', Barco V. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Marseille is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Balerdi L. (Illness)

There will not play in Strasbourg: Anselmino A. (Thigh Injury) Doue G. (Ankle Injury) Doukoure I. (Red Card) Emegha E. (Leg Injury) Oyedele M. (Groin Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 32:19. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:10. (average 2:1).

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Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Strasbourg: 0.95% Marseille: 0.3%

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Marseille	28	15	4	9	55:37	18	49
8	Strasbourg	28	12	7	9	46:34	12	43

Last Results with these Odds

Olympique Marseille - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.57%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
08.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	5:0 ✺
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Paris FC - Olympique Marseille	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Club Brugge - Olympique Marseille	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.01.26	Olympique Marseille - Lens	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWTLW
- RC Strasbourg
French Ligue 1
08.02.26	Le Havre - Strasbourg	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
05.02.26	Strasbourg - Monaco	3:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Strasbourg - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Lille - Strasbourg	1:4 ✺
18.01.26	Strasbourg - Metz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
26.09.25	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:2
19.01.25	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	1:1
29.09.24	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:0
12.01.24	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	1:1
25.11.23	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:1
12.03.23	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2
29.10.22	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	2:2

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