Match Info

Coupe de France - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympique Marseille		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	4.1	Watch
	1.58	3.9	4.8
	1.85	3.7	4.1	Watch
	1.91	3.65	4.21
	1.78	3.77	4.42	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4
	1.83	3.63	4.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.57)	3.66 ↓ (4.19)	4.28 ↓ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
52.3%

Draw
25.7%

Toulouse
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

22.3%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

21.7%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olympique Marseille's form might have worsened.

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	8.3%	2.8%

Olympique Marseille - Toulouse Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Toulouse (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (31 of 35 users predict this - 88.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.03% – 99.11%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Toulouse (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 22. Weah T. 21. Aguerd N. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 32. Medina F. 19. Kondogbia G. 8. Abdelli H. 10. Greenwood M. 18. Vermeeren A. 14. Paixao I. 17. Aubameyang P.	16. Haug K. (G) 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 4. Cresswell C. 3. McKenzie M. 19. Sidibe D. 23. Casseres C. 18. Demba P. 24. Methalie D. 15. Donnum A. 10. Gboho Y. 20. Emersonn
Substitutes
12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 33. Emerson 78. Lago E. 26. Nadir B. 6. Nnadi T. 11. Nwaneri E. 28. Pavard B. 20. Traore H. J.	44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 11. Hidalgo S. 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 1. Restes G. (G) 13. Russell-Rowe J. 77. Sauer M. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.
Coaches
Beye H.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Greenwood M. (Penalty Awarded),
11', Abdelli H. 🟨,
13', 1 - 1, Gboho Y. ⚽,
35', Greenwood M. 🟨,
37', Emersonn 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Abdelli H. ↓, Nwaneri E. ↑,
56', 2 - 1, Paixao I. ⚽, Kondogbia G. (A),
58', Vermeeren A. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
60', 2 - 2, Cresswell C. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),
65', Cresswell C. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
83', Emersonn ↓, Russell-Rowe J. ↑,
90', Paixao I. ↓, Traore H. J. ↑,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, Donnum A. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Greenwood M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Gboho Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Aubameyang P. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Sidibe D. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Balerdi L. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Casseres C. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Aguerd N. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Demba P. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Nwaneri E. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 2.

In recent matches, Marseille has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toulouse has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Marseille may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Marseille is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Hojbjerg P. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Donnum A. (Suspended) Francis A. (Broken Leg) Magri F. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Gouiri A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toulouse: Nicolaisen R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 12 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 46:19. (average 2.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:6. (average 2.1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2 ✺
20.02.26	Brest - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2 ✺
08.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	5:0 ✺
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLTLW
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
28.02.26	Rennes - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Toulouse - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Le Havre - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Angers - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Toulouse - Amiens	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
29.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:2
06.04.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	3:2
31.08.24	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	1:3
21.04.24	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	2:2
17.09.23	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	0:0
19.02.23	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	2:3
29.12.22	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	6:1

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