Match Info

Emperors Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Panasonic Stadium Suita (Suita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	SKY PerfecTV!


	Gamba Osaka		Montedio Yamagata

	1	X	2
	2	3	3.5
	1.55	3.8	4.6
	2	3.4	3.45
	2.08	3.53	3.38
				Watch
	1.57	3.7	5
	2.02	3.5	3.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.59)	3.49 ↓ (3.7)	3.92 ↓ (5.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gamba Osaka
49.7%

Draw
26.6%

Montedio Yamagata
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

25%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

23.9%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gamba Osaka's form might have worsened.

Montedio Yamagata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montedio Yamagata's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gamba Osaka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montedio Yamagata, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gamba Osaka - Montedio Yamagata Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Montedio Yamagata (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Montedio Yamagata (2.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gamba Osaka will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Gamba Osaka (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Montedio Yamagata (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ichimori J. (G) 3. Handa R. 11. Jebali I. 47. Juan Alano 6. Lavi N. 51. Mitsuta M. 5. Miura G. 33. Nakano S. 20. Nakatani S. 16. Suzuki T. 17. Yamashita R.	1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 5. Abe T. 90. Disaro A. S. 88. Doi S. 15. Kawai A. 10. Kida R. 25. Kokubu S. 8. Konishi Y. 71. Nakamura R. 4. Nishimura K. 13. Nodake H.
Substitutes
13. Abe S. 2. Fukuoka S. 1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 23. Hummet D. 15. Kishimoto T. 10. Kurata S. 4. Kurokawa K. 7. Usami T. 97. Welton	11. Fujimoto Y. 16. Hasegawa K. (G) 55. Horikane S. 14. Sakamoto K. 22. Shirowa H. 9. Takahashi J. 21. Tanaka W. 2. Yoshida T. 20. Yoshio Kaina

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Kida R. ⚽,
28', Kokubu S. 🟨,
30', 0 - 2, Kida R. ⚽,
40', 1 - 2, Jebali I. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Nakano S. ↓, Kurokawa K. ↑,
55', Juan Alano ↓, Welton ↑,
55', Suzuki T. ↓, Abe S. ↑,
56', Kokubu S. ↓, Sakamoto K. ↑,
56', Doi S. ↓, Takahashi J. ↑,
60', 2 - 2, Kurokawa K. ⚽,
62', Yamashita R. ↓, Kishimoto T. ↑,
66', Kida R. ↓, Yoshio Kaina ↑,
66', Disaro A. S. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
73', 3 - 2, Jebali I. ⚽,
78', 3 - 3, Takahashi J. ⚽,
82', Lavi N. ↓, Usami T. ↑,
85', Konishi Y. ↓, Tanaka W. ↑,
90+1', Abe S. 🟥,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
91', Miura G. ↓, Fukuoka S. ↑,
104', Nishimura K. ↓, Shirowa H. ↑,
117', 3 - 4, Yoshio Kaina ⚽,
118', Welton 🟨,
120+3', Tanaka W. 🟨,
120+3', 4 - 4, Nakatani S. ⚽,
120+3', Jebali I. 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, Usami T. (Pen),
1, Takahashi J. (Pen),
2, Welton (Pen),
2, Sakamoto K. (Pen),
3, Jebali I. (Pen),
3, Yoshio Kaina (Pen),
4, Kishimoto T. (Pen),
4, Abe T. (Pen),
5, Mitsuta M. (Pen),

Preview

Gamba Osaka is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Montedio Yamagata has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Montedio Yamagata may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gamba Osaka is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 3.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gamba Osaka won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 3.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League
05.07.25	Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	3:1 ✺
22.06.25	Gamba Osaka - Tokyo	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
18.06.25	Gamba Osaka - Veertien Mie	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
15.06.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWWT
- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Montedio Yamagata - JEF United Chiba	0:1 ✺
06.07.25	Ehime - Montedio Yamagata	1:3 ✺
28.06.25	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
22.06.25	Blaublitz Akita - Montedio Yamagata	2:3 ✺
15.06.25	Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
21.11.15	Gamba Osaka - Montedio Yamagata	4:0
27.06.15	Montedio Yamagata - Gamba Osaka	1:3
Japan Emperors Cup
13.12.14	Gamba Osaka - Montedio Yamagata	3:1
Japan J2 League
17.11.13	Gamba Osaka - Montedio Yamagata	3:2

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