Match Info

Australian Championship - Round 6

Date: 14 November 2025, Friday

Location: Perry Park (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	SBS On Demand
Hong-kong	HOY TV


	Moreton City Excelsior		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.04	3.7	2.15
	2.75	3.84	2.17	Watch
	3.03	3.6	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.75)	3.71 ↓ (3.84)	2.16 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreton City Excelsior
31.7%

Draw
25.1%

South Melbourne
43.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.5%

24%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

23.9%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreton City Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreton City Excelsior than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Moreton City Excelsior - South Melbourne Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. South Melbourne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: South Melbourne will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, ⚽,
12', 0 - 2, ⚽,
15', 1 - 2, ⚽,
20', 2 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 2 - 3, ⚽,
75', 3 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

South Melbourne is Qualified for Australian Championship (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Moreton City has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

South Melbourne is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

South Melbourne could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Moreton City won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

South Melbourne - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 42.48%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreton City Excelsior
Australian Championship
07.11.25	Sydney Olympic - Moreton City Excelsior	3:3 ✺
01.11.25	Moreton City Excelsior - Broadmeadow Magic	5:1 ✺
25.10.25	Moreton City Excelsior - Sydney Olympic	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	South Melbourne - Moreton City Excelsior	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Broadmeadow Magic - Moreton City Excelsior	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLLW
- South Melbourne FC
Australian Championship
07.11.25	South Melbourne - Broadmeadow Magic	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Sydney Olympic - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Broadmeadow Magic - South Melbourne	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	South Melbourne - Moreton City Excelsior	2:0 ✺
10.10.25	South Melbourne - Sydney Olympic	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian Championship
19.10.25	South Melbourne - Moreton City Excelsior	2:0

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