Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 12

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo Gandarada (Mortagua)


	Mortágua		Vitória de Sernache

	1	X	2
	2.72	2.82	2.58
	2.74	2.67	2.74
	2.73	2.83	2.68	Watch
	2.75	2.63	2.7
	2.78	3.09	2.52
	2.71	2.66	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.6)	2.78 ↓ (3)	2.66 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mortágua
33.2%

Draw
32.6%

Vitória de Sernache
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

29.8%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

30.6%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mortágua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Vitória de Sernache has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mortágua than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória de Sernache than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Mortágua - Vitória de Sernache Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
75', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Mortágua has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mortágua won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mortágua won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mortágua FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
07.12.25	Os Marialvas - Mortágua	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Mortágua - Naval	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Mortágua	4:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
08.11.25	Lajense - Mortágua	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Fatima - Mortágua	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WTLTW
- Vitória de Sernache
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
07.12.25	Vitória de Sernache - Fatima	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Samora Correia - Vitória de Sernache	0:1 ✺
16.11.25	Vitória de Sernache - Lajense	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Oliveira Hospital - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
07.01.24	Vitória de Sernache - Mortágua	1:1
20.08.23	Mortágua - Vitória de Sernache	1:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
10.04.21	Vitória de Sernache - Mortágua	2:0
10.01.21	Mortágua - Vitória de Sernache	3:3

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