Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 15

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo Gandarada (Mortagua)


	Mortágua		União da Serra

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.98	3.2
	2.2	3.01	3.27	Watch
	2.4	2.7	2.9
	2.34	3.23	2.91
	2.42	2.83	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.11)	2.95 ↓ (3.15)	3.04 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mortágua
39.4%

Draw
30.7%

União da Serra
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

28.5%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

27.7%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mortágua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

União da Serra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mortágua than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União da Serra than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Mortágua - União da Serra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 and 5)

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mortágua will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mortágua won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Mortágua won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Mortagua	4	3	1	0	9:4	5	10
5	Uniao Da Serra	4	2	2	0	6:4	2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mortágua FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
10.01.26	SB Castelo Branco - Mortágua	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Eléctrico - Mortágua	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Mortágua - Vitória de Sernache	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Os Marialvas - Mortágua	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Mortágua - Naval	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLWT
- União da Serra
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
10.01.26	União da Serra - Fatima	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	União da Serra - Samora Correia	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Peniche - União da Serra	3:2 ✺
07.12.25	União da Serra - Oliveira Hospital	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Marinhense - União da Serra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.08.25	União da Serra - Mortágua	0:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
05.02.23	Mortágua - União da Serra	3:3
23.10.22	União da Serra - Mortágua	1:0

Mortágua - União da Serra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide