Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 13

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo da Portela (Santa Catarina da Serra)


	União da Serra		Samora Correia

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.55	4.85
	1.66	3.51	4.89	Watch
	1.62	3.4	4.6
	1.66	3.75	4.68
	1.55	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.49)	3.59 ↓ (3.7)	4.8 ↓ (6.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União da Serra
56%

Draw
25.2%

Samora Correia
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

24.4%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

23.3%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União da Serra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Samora Correia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União da Serra than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for União da Serra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samora Correia than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

União da Serra - Samora Correia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 1 - 0, ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by União da Serra have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Samora Correia is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, União da Serra is the obvious favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União da Serra
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.12.25	Peniche - União da Serra	3:2 ✺
07.12.25	União da Serra - Oliveira Hospital	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Marinhense - União da Serra	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	União da Serra - SC Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	União da Serra - Lajense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTTWW
- GD Samora Correia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.12.25	Samora Correia - SB Castelo Branco	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Eléctrico - Samora Correia	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Samora Correia - Vitória de Sernache	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Os Marialvas - Samora Correia	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Samora Correia - Naval	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLT

União da Serra - Samora Correia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide