Match Info

POLAND: DIVISION 1 - ROUND 1

Date: 21 July 2023, Friday

Location: Arena Lublin (Lublin)

Referee: Malec P. (Pol)


	Motor Lublin		Zagłębie Sosnowiec

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.45
	2.75	3.1	2.4
	2.7	2.95	2.7
	2.96	3.14	2.58
	2.75	3	2.45
	2.81	3.18	2.47
	2.73	3.15	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.29)	3.09 ↓ (3.23)	2.51 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
33.3%

Draw
29.9%

Zagłębie Sosnowiec
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

28.5%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

28.4%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Motor Lublin's form might have worsened.

Zagłębie Sosnowiec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zagłębie Sosnowiec's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Motor Lublin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Sosnowiec than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zagłębie Sosnowiec, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	38.5%	38.5%

Motor Lublin - Zagłębie Sosnowiec Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Zagłębie Sosnowiec will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zagłębie Sosnowiec: 12% – 65%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Budzilek L. (G) 77. Ceglarz P. 26. Krol M. 10. Krol R. (C) 24. Luberecki F. 21. Rudol S. 37. Scalet M. 4. Szarek P. 19. Welniak K. 17. Wojcik F. 22. Wojtkowski K.	33. Kos M. (G) 14. Bonecki S. 2. Bykov O. 11. Fabry M. 18. Guezen D. 27. Jonczy D. 20. Klups T. 3. Pavic A. 28. Rozwandowicz M. (C) 16. Ryndak D. 88. Troc A.
Substitutes
55. Gasior M. 11. Kaminski D. 73. Lis J. 8. Romanowski P. 1. Rosa K. (G) 7. Rybicki M. 99. Spiewak K. 15. Staszak J. 25. Zbiciak B.	. Bebenek K. 9. Bilinski K. 96. Calinski P. 10. Camara J. 13. Dalic V. 55. Karwot M. 87. Siuta K. (G) 17. Valencia J. 77. Wrzesinski K.
Coaches
Feio G.	Gorecko K.

Preview

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Club Friendly
14.07.23	Motor Lublin - Zorya Luhansk	3:1 ✺
08.07.23	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	1:1 ✺
04.07.23	Motor Lublin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
Polish Division 2
11.06.23	Stomil Olsztyn - Motor Lublin	1:2 penalties ✺
07.06.23	Kotwica Kołobrzeg - Motor Lublin	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 WTTWW
- Zagłębie Sosnowiec
Club Friendly
15.07.23	Wisła Kraków - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	0:0 ✺
08.07.23	Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	0:1 ✺
05.07.23	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Polonia Bytom	2:0 ✺
01.07.23	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Sandecja Nowy Sącz	2:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
03.06.23	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Sandecja Nowy Sącz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TWWTT

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