Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 5

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Exbud Arena (Kielce)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 5
Germany	Laola1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Korona Kielce		Motor Lublin

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.60	4.00	Watch
	1.80	3.75	4.00
	1.76	3.65	4.10
	1.86	3.82	4.26
	2	3.61	3.71	Watch
	1.80	3.80	4.20
	1.81	3.62	4.09	Watch
	1.82	3.60	4.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.97)	3.68 ↓ (3.7)	4.05 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Korona Kielce
51.4%

Draw
25.5%

Motor Lublin
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

25.7%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

26%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Motor (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Korona Kielce will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Korona Kielce will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Korona (votes: 3 - 75%). Motor (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dziekonski X. (G) 71. Dlugosz W. 23. Rubezic S. 2. Mosor A. 6. Pieczek M. 35. Jakubczyk K. 8. Remacle M. 18. Hellebrand P. 9. Davidovic S. 14. Stepinski M. (C) 22. Fassbender M.	71. Popa M. (G) 29. Santos T. 18. Bereszynski B. 39. Bartos M. 24. Luberecki F. 8. Kikis 2. Meyer P. 7. Rodrigues I. 30. Ndiaye M. 10. Czubak K. (C) 70. Aiko M.
Substitutes
99. Bak D. 67. Barczak N. 21. Ciszek K. 87. Mamla R. (G) 11. Matuszewski K. 12. Mikielewicz M. (G) 20. Minuczyc K. 10. Nono 24. Smolarczyk B. 44. Sotiriou K.	5. Akatov A. 13. Brzozowski K. 11. Fabio Ronaldo 90. Gregorski D. 23. Haxha F. 6. Legowski M. 16. Lewandowski F. 17. Lukoszek K. 4. Plavotic T. 19. Szymanek K. 33. Tratnik G. (G)
Coaches
Zielinski J.	Misiura M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Rubezic S. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Stepinski M. ⚽, Remacle M. (A),
28', Aiko M. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Czubak K. ⚽, Rodrigues I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Davidovic S. ↓, Nono ↑,
46', Aiko M. ↓, Fabio Ronaldo ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Korona won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Korona will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Motor: Plichta K. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Korona won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Korona won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Korona Kielce: 1.65% Motor Lublin: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Korona Kielce	9	4	3	2	12:10	2	15
16	Motor Lublin	9	1	3	5	9:15	-6	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.08.26	Widzew Łódź - Korona Kielce	1:2 ✺
08.08.26	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Korona Kielce - Termalica Nieciecza	0:2 ✺
14.07.26	Korona Kielce - Stal Rzeszów	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WTLLT
- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.26	Motor Lublin - GKS Katowice	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Motor Lublin	3:1 ✺
31.07.26	Motor Lublin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
26.07.26	Widzew Łódź - Motor Lublin	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Motor Lublin - Warta Poznań	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
28.02.26	Motor Lublin - Korona Kielce	2:0
23.08.25	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	2:0
09.02.25	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	1:0
04.08.24	Motor Lublin - Korona Kielce	1:1
Club Friendly
22.06.24	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	1:1
08.07.23	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	1:1

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