Match Info

Ligi Kuu Bara - Round 11

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Azam Complex Stadium (Dar es Salaam)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 1


	Mtibwa Sugar		Mbeya City

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.78	3.6
	2.16	2.94	3.53	Watch
	2.15	2.75	3.4
	2.14	2.88	3.5	Watch
	2.12	2.9	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.98)	2.85 ↓ (2.88)	3.49 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mtibwa Sugar
42.4%

Draw
31.7%

Mbeya City
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

31.2%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mtibwa Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Mbeya City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Mtibwa Sugar - Mbeya City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Malimi C. (G) 29. Chota G. . Collins C. 13. Datius P. 26. Liuzio J. 6. Lyawatwa H. 21. Magata F. 27. Manga O. 17. Msafiri K. 20. Muhenga T. 12. Nyangi J.	48. Kakolanya B. D. (G) 24. Abdallah K. 10. Ambokile E. (C) 26. Buha A. 7. Kyombo H. 54. Lidah H. 60. Maranyingi B. 19. Msuya R. 28. Pemba K. 5. Seleman Mbegu Y. 27. Tiote
Substitutes
. Evance F. 25. Hillary A. 14. Laurent A. 19. Marungu O. A. 11. Mhesa I. 45. Mkopi S. A. 2. Mwashilindi E. . Reuben T. 9. Simchimba A.	. Kijili . Mkombozi . Mussa H. (G) . Mwalyanzi P. . Mwani W. . Naushard 4. Pillar K. 13. Stewart T. . Yassin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Chota G. ⚽, Liuzio J. (A),
39', (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', 1 - 1, Ambokile E. ⚽, Maranyingi B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Liuzio J. ↓, Mkopi S. A. ↑,
56', Muhenga T. ↓, Marungu O. A. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Mkopi S. A. ⚽, Datius P. (A),
68', Msafiri K. ↓, Laurent A. ↑,
68', Nyangi J. ↓, Mhesa I. ↑,
70', Msuya R. ↓, Mwani W. ↑,
70', Abdallah K. ↓, Mwalyanzi P. ↑,
79', Malimi C. ↓, Reuben T. ↑,
88', Kyombo H. ↓, Majimengi H. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 13 in the zone Ligi Kuu Bara (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mtibwa Sugar won 2.

Mtibwa Sugar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mtibwa Sugar is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Mtibwa Sugar won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mtibwa Sugar won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.3:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mbeya City	6	3	1	2	6:4	2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mtibwa Sugar FC
Tanzanian Premier League
18.01.26	Simba - Mtibwa Sugar	1:1 ✺
03.12.25	JKT Tanzania - Mtibwa Sugar	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Mtibwa Sugar - TRA United	2:1 ✺
25.11.25	Kinondoni MC - Mtibwa Sugar	0:0 ✺
28.10.25	Young Africans - Mtibwa Sugar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 TTWTL
- Mbeya City FC
Tanzanian Premier League
04.12.25	Simba - Mbeya City	3:0 ✺
30.11.25	Mbeya City - Namungo	0:1 ✺
26.11.25	Coastal Union - Mbeya City	2:0 ✺
24.10.25	Mbeya City - JKT Tanzania	2:2 ✺
21.10.25	Mbeya City - Prisons	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Tanzanian Premier League
22.01.23	Mbeya City - Mtibwa Sugar	1:0
02.10.22	Mtibwa Sugar - Mbeya City	2:2
07.05.22	Mtibwa Sugar - Mbeya City	1:0
20.11.21	Mbeya City - Mtibwa Sugar	3:1
18.05.21	Mtibwa Sugar - Mbeya City	2:0
28.11.20	Mbeya City - Mtibwa Sugar	0:0
29.09.19	Mtibwa Sugar - Mbeya City	1:1

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