The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Municipal 73.5%
Draw 18.2%
Malacateco 8.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
62.5%
22.6%
14.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
63.5%
22.2%
14.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Municipal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Municipal's performance.
Malacateco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Malacateco might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Municipal than the current prediction. (-10%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Municipal that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Malacateco than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Malacateco could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Municipal - Malacateco Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Navarro K. (G) 23. Aguilar C. 10. Altan P. 20. Archila C. 33. Cabeza A. 31. Calderon C. 52. David A. 19. Hernandez C. 32. Lopez E. 43. Perez Y. Y. 4. Samayoa N.
. Guzman A. (G) . Castanon J. . Chun M. . de Leon I. . Esqueda Romero J. A. . Morales F. . Paz V. . Quinones E. . Sanchez D. . Soto A. . Vasquez G.
Substitutes
11. Bantes J. 14. Franco J. 1. Linares B. (G) 9. Martinez J. 3. Mena J. 92. Mendez J. 16. Morales J. 7. Munoz R. 8. Saravia R.
. Andrade N. . Cummings H. . Giron Escobar M. R. . Longo J. . Morales A. . Ochoa J. . Quinteros F. . Ramirez K. . Rendon C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Lopez E. (Penalty Awarded),
38', 0 - 1, Quinones E. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Chun M. ↓, Cummings H. ↑,
46', Sanchez D. ↓, Longo J. ↑,
46', Cabeza A. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Hernandez C. ⚽,
63', 🟨,
64', Aguilar C. ↓, Morales J. ↑,
68', Vasquez G. ↓, Andrade N. ↑,
68', Morales F. ↓, Ochoa J. ↑,
77', de Leon I. ↓, Ramirez K. ↑,
78', Archila C. ↓, Munoz R. ↑,
78', Lopez E. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
79', Ramirez K. 🟨,
82', Altan P. ↓, Bantes J. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Ochoa J. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 2, Samayoa N. ⚽,
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Municipal won 5.
Municipal is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Malacateco has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Malacateco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Municipal is the obvious favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Municipal won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 39:22. (average 2:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Municipal won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 26:5. (average 2.6:0.5).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
Municipal
10
7
2
1
16:5
11
23
11
Malacateco
12
3
3
6
12:19
-7
12
Last Results with these Odds
Municipal - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 62.49%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.
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Navarro K. (G) 
Cabeza A. 
David A. 
Hernandez C. 
Lopez E. 
Perez Y. Y. 
Esqueda Romero J. A. 
Quinones E. 
Sanchez D. 
Cummings H. 
Rendon C. 
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