Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 6

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano Jose Fouto (Mérida)

Referee: Rodriguez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Mérida AD		Cacereño

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.00	3.20
	2.00	3.20	3.20
	2.12	3.05	3.10
	2.20	3.25	3.45
	2.09	3.38	3.38	Watch
	2.17	2.95	3.40
	2.21	3.15	3.36
	2.08	3.15	3.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.3)	3.14 ↓ (3.26)	3.27 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
43%

Draw
29.1%

Cacereño
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.5%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

28.5%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Cacereño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cacereño than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Mérida AD - Cacereño Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 2. Jay A. 16. Fito 4. Gonzalez Nacho 14. Carrillo H. 6. Lopez J. 23. Almeida G. 24. Kone 21. Beneit R. (C) 19. Sandoval D. 11. El Ftouhi S.	1. Nieves D. (G) 17. Lopez S. 2. Martinez Munoz I. (C) 3. Molina M. 22. Exposito A. 11. Monerris A. 6. Conesa N. 16. Navarro S. 18. Artola J. 5. Calvo T. 9. Chit O.
Substitutes
7. Areso J. 20. Barbu 10. Doncel C. 26. Gil A. (G) 17. Guagua D. 9. Hallsson S. 13. Juhasz I. (G) 15. Salguero A. 5. Sanz H. 8. Solar M.	14. Alonso J. 4. Barea P. 24. Cabrera U. 7. Fernandez I. 13. Garcia G. (G) 8. Gete A. 23. Gonzalez J. 15. Rodriguez V. 10. Runy 21. Sanchez L. 19. Sevila M. 20. Tellechea I.
Coaches
Beltran F.	Cobos J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Kone ⚽, El Ftouhi S. (A),
66', El Ftouhi S. ↓, Hallsson S. ↑,
68', Artola J. ↓, Runy ↑,
75', Sandoval D. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
76', Chit O. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
76', Navarro S. ↓, Fernandez I. ↑,
77', 2 - 0, Hallsson S. ⚽, Areso J. (A),
83', Calvo T. ↓, Tellechea I. ↑,
83', Monerris A. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
87', Fernandez I. 🟨,
88', Carrillo H. ↓, Barbu ↑,
88', Lopez J. ↓, Sanz H. ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 18th in the Relegation and 4th in the Promotion - Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mérida AD won 2.

Mérida AD is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Cacereño is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Mérida AD could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Mérida AD holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Mérida AD has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:5 (averaging 1.1:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mérida AD against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Cacereno	6	3	2	1	6:3	3	11
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Mérida AD - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.37%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.09.26	Mérida AD - UD Logroñés	3:5 ✺
19.09.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Mérida AD - Mirandés	3:4 ✺
06.09.26	Leonesa - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Mérida AD - Deportivo A Coruña B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW
- CP Cacereño
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.09.26	UD Ourense - Cacereño	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Cacereño - Arenas Club de Getxo	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
16.09.26	Recreativo Huelva - Cacereño	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.09.26	Cacereño - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
09.09.26	Cacereño - UD San Pedro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.02.26	Mérida AD - Cacereño	1:0
20.09.25	Cacereño - Mérida AD	2:1
Club Friendly
12.08.23	Cacereño - Mérida AD	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
24.04.22	Cacereño - Mérida AD	1:2
05.12.21	Mérida AD - Cacereño	0:1
Club Friendly
22.08.21	Cacereño - Mérida AD	0:3
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
04.11.18	Cacereño - Mérida AD	1:1

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