Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Ponferradina		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.10	3.20
	2.00	3.00	3.40
	1.90	3.25	3.55
	2.16	3.15	3.47
	1.98	3.18	4	Watch
	2.13	3.00	3.40
	2.18	3.22	3.33
	2.05	3.00	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.74)	3.11 ↓ (3.35)	3.46 ↓ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
44.3%

Draw
29.3%

Mérida AD
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

27.1%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

26.2%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponferradina's form might have worsened.

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mérida AD's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mérida AD, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ponferradina - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dominguez A. (G) 24. Koke 5. Undabarrena E. (C) 4. Jelbat A. 3. Nieto S. 6. San Emeterio F. 10. Valle B. 7. Calderon C. 17. Chibozo J. 8. Molina A. 12. Sabroso U.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 2. Jay A. 4. Gonzalez Nacho 16. Fito 5. Sanz H. 23. Almeida G. 21. Beneit R. (C) 7. Areso J. 17. Guagua D. 6. Lopez J. 11. El Ftouhi S.
Substitutes
25. Abedzadeh A. (G) 13. Alvin (G) 2. Andujar D. 14. Aranda J. L. 11. Bari Q. 18. de Leon J. 22. Hernandez E. 19. Munoz P. 23. Roig A. 9. Slavy 16. Tounkara N. 15. Vacas O.	20. Barbu 14. Carrillo H. 18. Dibrani B. 9. Hallsson S. 13. Juhasz I. (G) 24. Kone 19. Sandoval D.
Coaches
Nafti M.	Beltran F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Areso J. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Jelbat A. ⚽,
39', Undabarrena E. 🟨,
45+2', Undabarrena E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Guagua D. ↓, Kone ↑,
46', Areso J. ↓, Dibrani B. ↑,
46', Chibozo J. ↓, Andujar D. ↑,
63', Sabroso U. ↓, Bari Q. ↑,
66', Fito ↓, Sandoval D. ↑,
67', Jelbat A. ↓, Vacas O. ↑,
67', Molina A. ↓, Aranda J. L. ↑,
78', Nieto S. ↓, Roig A. ↑,
78', Sanz H. ↓, Hallsson S. ↑,
90+2', Almeida G. 🟥,

Preview

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Mérida AD may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Mérida AD has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Ponferradina carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ponferradina has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:1 (averaging 2:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ponferradina against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.09.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	UD Ourense - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.08.26	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
05.08.26	Ponferradina - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTWTL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.09.26	Mérida AD - Mirandés	3:4 ✺
06.09.26	Leonesa - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Mérida AD - Deportivo A Coruña B	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Mérida AD - Alcorcón	2:1 ✺
01.08.26	Mérida AD - Betis B	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.04.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	4:1
24.10.25	Mérida AD - Ponferradina	0:0

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