Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 3

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Mérida AD		Celta de Vigo B

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.4
	2.25	3.1	2.8
	2.1	3.25	3.2
	2.34	3.4	2.8
	2.15	3.22	3.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (1.87)	3.21 ↓ (3.35)	3.09 ↓ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
42%

Draw
28.5%

Celta de Vigo B
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

27.4%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

27.5%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mérida AD's form might have worsened.

Celta de Vigo B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Celta de Vigo B's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mérida AD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celta de Vigo B than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Celta de Vigo B, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mérida AD - Celta de Vigo B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 19. Pipe 15. Martinez G. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 17. Herranz Corral V. 8. Solar M. 10. Doncel C. 21. Beneit R. 7. Chiqui 9. Garcia A.	1. Carrillo J. B. (G) 2. Gavian P. 6. Meixus P. (C) 26. Rodriguez A. 18. Lopez J. 7. Gonzalez H. 16. Capdevila A. 5. Burcio H. 19. Marcos O. 11. Arcos A. 17. Somuah B.
Substitutes
11. Areso J. 14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 18. Dibrani B. 5. Dominguez J. 12. Gomes R. 20. Jacobo R. 6. Miki 4. Pareja Alvarez L. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.	8. Antanon A. 21. Bilbao L. 13. Caio Barone (G) 25. Gonzalez M. (G) 9. Marin A. 23. Miller G. 28. Noya D. 14. Oliveras J. 20. Tarba I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Marcos O. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Gonzalez H. ⚽,
42', Gavian P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
52', Solar M. 🟨,
56', 0 - 2, Gonzalez H. ⚽,
59', Lancho J. 🟨,
60', Herranz Corral V. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
60', Doncel C. ↓, Artola J. ↑,
60', Lancho J. ↓, Dominguez J. ↑,
62', 🟨,
63', 0 - 3, Somuah B. ⚽,
67', Gavian P. ↓, Miller G. ↑,
67', Marcos O. ↓, Bilbao L. ↑,
69', 1 - 3, Garcia A. ⚽,
74', 🟨,
78', Capdevila A. ↓, Antanon A. ↑,
78', Somuah B. ↓, Marin A. ↑,
79', Chiqui ↓, Capitas M. ↑,
86', 2 - 3, Garcia A. ⚽,
88', Solar M. ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
90+3', Arcos A. ↓, Tarba I. ↑,
90+12', 2 - 4, Gonzalez H. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mérida AD won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Mérida AD won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
06.09.25	Tenerife - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Mérida AD - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
22.08.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	2:5 ✺
15.08.25	Santa Amalia - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
08.08.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid C	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWTT
- Celta de Vigo B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.09.25	Celta de Vigo B - CD Guadalajara	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Zamora - Celta de Vigo B	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ferrol - Celta de Vigo B	0:3 ✺
17.08.25	Celta de Vigo B - Ourense CF	1:2 ✺
13.08.25	UD Ourense - Celta de Vigo B	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.02.23	Mérida AD - Celta de Vigo B	0:3
09.10.22	Celta de Vigo B - Mérida AD	1:2

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