Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 7

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Reina Sofia (Salamanca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Unionistas de Salamanca		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.6
	2.48	3	2.78
	2.73	3.15	2.92
	1.01	12.95	25.00	Watch
	2.5	3.14	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.17)	5.09 ↑ (3.13)	7.2 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unionistas de Salamanca
57.1%

Draw
25.2%

Mérida AD
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unionistas de Salamanca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unionistas de Salamanca's performance.

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mérida AD might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unionistas de Salamanca than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unionistas de Salamanca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mérida AD could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Unionistas (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marino U. (G) 3. Gorjon A. 5. Farru 20. Encuentra J. 19. Prada R. 21. Marco P. 6. Juanje 10. de la Nava C. 8. Lopez J. 11. Gomez A. 24. Abde	1. Csenterics A. (G) 19. Pipe 15. Martinez G. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 11. Areso J. 10. Doncel C. 21. Beneit R. 8. Solar M. 7. Chiqui 9. Garcia A.
Substitutes
9. Alex Pachon 18. de Bustos H. 22. Lendinez J. 4. Mayor R. 7. Moreno I. 23. Pinan A. 14. Roldan L. 12. Santiago A. 13. Suarez Coronas Lastra M. (G) 15. Valles G.	14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 18. Dibrani B. 5. Dominguez J. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 17. Herranz Corral V. 20. Jacobo R. 4. Pareja L. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Doncel C. 🟨,
33', Prada R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, Abde ⚽,
55', Juanje 🟨,
60', Gorjon A. 🟨,
60', Abde ↓, Pinan A. ↑,
60', Marco P. ↓, de Bustos H. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, de Bustos H. ⚽,
65', Doncel C. ↓, Artola J. ↑,
65', Beneit R. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
65', Areso J. ↓, Herranz Corral V. ↑,
69', de la Nava C. 🟨,
77', Lopez J. 🟨,
78', Pipe ↓, Jacobo R. ↑,
82', Gomez A. ↓, Roldan L. ↑,
89', Martinez G. ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
89', de la Nava C. ↓, Mayor R. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Unionistas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Unionistas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unionistas de Salamanca
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.10.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Celta de Vigo B	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Avilés	3:2 ✺
14.09.25	CD Guadalajara - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Arenteiro - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
05.10.25	Mérida AD - Arenas Club de Getxo	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Zamora - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Cacereño - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mérida AD - Celta de Vigo B	2:4 ✺
06.09.25	Tenerife - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
22.08.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	2:5
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.02.23	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	0:1
24.09.22	Mérida AD - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:1

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