Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 16

Date: 10 December 2023, Sunday


	Mérida AD		Málaga

	1	X	2
	4	3.25	1.8
	3.9	3.2	1.8
	4.33	3.25	1.85
	4.82	3.35	1.87
	4.82	3.34	1.79
	4.65	3.28	1.78
	3.95	3.3	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.35 ↓ (4.41)	3.28 ↑ (2.88)	1.82 (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
21.2%

Draw
28.1%

Málaga
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

30.9%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

30%

50.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Mérida AD - Málaga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Juanpa (G) 19. Felipe 22. Bourdal T. 4. Bonaque M. 21. Llacer L. 18. Padilla J. 6. Gutierrez I. 8. Ndongo N. 14. Beneit R. 7. Sandoval D. 9. Chuma	1. Herrero A. (G) 2. Gabilondo J. 25. Murillo D. 4. Galilea E. 14. Garcia V. 16. Rodriguez G. (C) 22. Lorenzo D. 10. Larrubia D. 17. Dioni 11. Villodres K. 19. Fernandez Jaen R.
Substitutes
5. Acosta L. 26. Dabo Gnako Y. 20. Elejalde I. 11. Escardo A. 15. Jose Elo 10. Mukai A. 3. Prada R. 29. Prevedini M. 23. Rodriguez D. 27. Sainz J. 13. Vicente D. (G)	26. Cordero A. 8. Juanpe 13. Lopez C. (G) 29. Merino I. 15. Moussa D. 35. Ochoa A. 3. Ouacharaf B. 18. Sanchez D. 9. Zuniga L.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Mérida AD is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Málaga is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mérida AD could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Málaga is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
02.12.23	Intercity - Mérida AD	0:1 ✺
26.11.23	Mérida AD - Recreativo Huelva	0:0 ✺
18.11.23	Mérida AD - San Fernando	0:2 ✺
12.11.23	Atlético Baleares - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
05.11.23	Mérida AD - Ibiza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTLLL
- Málaga CF
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.12.23	Málaga - Eldense	1:0 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
02.12.23	Málaga - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0 ✺
26.11.23	Real Murcia - Málaga	1:4 ✺
18.11.23	Málaga - Alcoyano	1:2 ✺
12.11.23	Ibiza - Málaga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTWLT

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