Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 14

Date: 26 November 2023, Sunday


	Real Murcia		Málaga

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.9	2.25
	3.1	2.87	2.25
	3.25	2.95	2.3
	3.41	2.92	2.38
	3.41	2.84	2.38
	3.24	2.9	2.34
	3.2	2.9	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.6)	2.9 ↑ (2.8)	2.31 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
28.3%

Draw
31.8%

Málaga
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

31.3%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

31.2%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Murcia's form might have worsened.

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Murcia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Real Murcia - Málaga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Garcia M. (G) 20. Santos S. 4. Mauro M. 6. Gonzalez A. 26. Lopez A. 23. Alonso I. 7. Gomez I. 22. Molina A. 10. Guarrotxena I. 17. Vega D. 11. Carrillo J.	1. Herrero A. (G) 2. Gabilondo J. 20. Monte N. 25. Murillo D. 18. Sanchez D. 16. Rodriguez G. 12. Molina M. 21. Hernandez Garcia J. 22. Lorenzo D. 11. Villodres K. 19. Fernandez Jaen R.
Substitutes
32. Armenteros A. 8. Larrea P. 14. Leon P. 19. Montoro A. 15. Navarro S. 13. Piedra I. (G) 21. Pina Tomas 9. Rodri 18. Rojas C. 25. Rubio A. 29. Santiago E. (G) 5. Zalaya A.	34. Arriaza P. 26. Cordero A. 17. Dioni 4. Galilea E. 14. Garcia V. 10. Larrubia D. 13. Lopez C. (G) 15. Moussa D. 3. Ouacharaf B. 9. Zuniga L.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Málaga will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.11.23	Intercity - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
12.11.23	Real Murcia - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
05.11.23	Ceuta - Real Murcia	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.11.23	Arandina - Real Murcia	1:0 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.10.23	Real Murcia - Linares Deportivo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TTLLW
- Málaga CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.11.23	Málaga - Alcoyano	1:2 ✺
12.11.23	Ibiza - Málaga	1:1 ✺
05.11.23	Málaga - Córdoba	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
01.11.23	Barakaldo - Málaga	0:1 penalties ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
29.10.23	Antequera - Málaga	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LTTWW

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