Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 33

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Móstoles URJC		CD Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.7	1.9
	3.3	3.5	1.87
	3.25	3.6	1.95
	3.28	3.65	2.02
	3.31	3.6	1.99
	3.25	3.6	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↓ (5.25)	3.61 ↓ (3.75)	1.95 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Móstoles URJC
28%

Draw
25.2%

CD Guadalajara
46.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

17.1%

24%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.6%

23.3%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Móstoles URJC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Móstoles URJC's performance.

CD Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and CD Guadalajara might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Móstoles URJC than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Móstoles URJC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that CD Guadalajara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Móstoles URJC - CD Guadalajara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Amigo D. ⚽,
5', 1 - 1, Rodriguez V. ⚽,
13', 2 - 1, Castro A. ⚽,
45', 2 - 2, Alvarez U. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 3 - 2, de la Llave K. ⚽,
90+2', 4 - 2, Navarro M. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Móstoles is Relegated to

Guadalajara is Confirmed as championsnQualified for

Recent matches Móstoles is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Guadalajara is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Móstoles could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Guadalajara will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Móstoles won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:5 (average 0.5:2.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Móstoles won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Móstoles URJC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
19.04.25	Melilla - Móstoles URJC	3:2 ✺
13.04.25	Móstoles URJC - Atlético Paso	4:1 ✺
05.04.25	Colonia Moscardó - Móstoles URJC	0:2 ✺
30.03.25	Tenerife B - Móstoles URJC	2:1 ✺
23.03.25	Móstoles URJC - Getafe B	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWWLW
- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
20.04.25	CD Guadalajara - Getafe B	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Navalcarnero - CD Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	CD Guadalajara - Coria	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Illescas - CD Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	CD Guadalajara - Conquense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
14.12.24	CD Guadalajara - Móstoles URJC	3:0
Club Friendly
10.08.23	Móstoles URJC - CD Guadalajara	1:2

Móstoles URJC - CD Guadalajara