Match Info

1. Liga - Round 19

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday


	Mārupe		Super Nova 2

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.50	2.70
	2.15	3.4	2.75
	2.15	3.35	2.77
	2.2	3.54	2.82	Watch
	2.1	3.25	2.7
	2.18	3.44	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.15)	3.41 ↓ (3.65)	2.77 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mārupe
41.5%

Draw
26.2%

Super Nova 2
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

24.7%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

23.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mārupe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Super Nova 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Super Nova 2 than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Strelcovs I. ⚽, Malisevs A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
59', Cugunovs J. 🟥,
64', 1 - 1, Krievins R. ⚽, Penka R. (A),
84', 2 - 1, Avdejevs D. ⚽, Korsaks K. (A),

Preview

Mārupe is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Super Nova 2 has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Super Nova 2 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mārupe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mārupes SC
Latvian 1 Liga
01.08.26	Skanstes - Mārupe	4:2 ✺
18.07.26	Mārupe - Metta	0:4 ✺
Latvian Cup
12.07.26	Mārupe - Grobiņa	0:1 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
04.07.26	Mārupe - Smiltene	2:1 ✺
27.06.26	Riga Mariners - Mārupe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL
- Super Nova 2
Latvian 1 Liga
31.07.26	Super Nova 2 - Riga Mariners	0:3 ✺
25.07.26	JDFS Alberts - Super Nova 2	1:1 ✺
19.07.26	Riga 2 - Super Nova 2	2:1 ✺
05.07.26	Rīgas FS 2 - Super Nova 2	1:1 ✺
27.06.26	Super Nova 2 - Tukums 2000 2	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
02.05.26	Super Nova 2 - Mārupe	0:1

Mārupe - Super Nova 2: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide