Match Info

Serie B - Round 23

Date: 18 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife)

Referee: Filho A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere, SporTV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Náutico Capibaribe		Ceará

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.6
	2.10	3.00	3.40
	2.12	2.95	3.55
	2.2	3.07	3.98
	2.16	2.99	3.76	Watch
	2.14	2.95	3.9
	2.13	2.94	3.8
	2.14	3	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.25)	3 ↓ (3.2)	3.69 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
43.7%

Draw
31.1%

Ceará
25.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.4%

29.1%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

29.4%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	50%	20%

Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (G) 93. Reginaldo 15. Leo Indio 23. Igor Fernandes 6. Ryan Carlos 8. Wenderson 41. Samuel Felix 72. Derek 10. Jean Carlos (C) 24. Borasi B. 19. Kauan Maranhao	1. Richard (C) 2. Ramos R. 4. Luiz Otavio 71. Gabriel Rocha 6. Savio 40. Melk 18. Julio Cesar 81. Joao Gabriel 20. Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 7. Lopez R. 99. Lucca
Substitutes
5. Auremir 88. Caio 48. Guilherme 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 18. Halan 13. Indio 37. Juan Rikelme 16. Luiz Claudio 75. Silva H. 11. Victor Andrade 7. Vinicius 34. Wanderson	86. Aloisio 88. Caio 21. Giovanni Pavani 35. Giulio 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 90. Kaua Ziegler 11. Lucas Mugni 13. Luiz Otavio 8. Matheus Araujo 22. Matheus Nogueira (G) 26. Richardson 12. Sanchez
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Daniel Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+2', Kauan Maranhao 🟨,
45+9', 1 - 0, Leo Indio ⚽, Jean Carlos (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Richard ↓, Matheus Nogueira ↑,
46', Lucca ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
46', Ramos R. ↓, Giulio ↑,
62', Melk ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
66', Ryan Carlos ↓, Wanderson ↑,
66', Borasi B. ↓, Vinicius ↑,
68', Reginaldo 🟨,
71', Wenderson ↓, Caio ↑,
71', Samuel Felix ↓, Auremir ↑,
71', Derek ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
79', Caio 🟨,
80', Matheus Araujo 🟨,
83', Julio Cesar ↓, Aloisio ↑,
84', Daniel Paulista 🟨,
85', Wanderson 🟨,
87', Jean Carlos 🟨,
90+2', Victor Andrade 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 15 and 16)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Náutico may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Náutico is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Náutico: Arnaldo (Yellow Cards) Betao (Red Card) Junior Todinho (Injury) Luiz Felipe (Injury) Matheus Ribeiro (Injury) Nunez P. (Red Card) Paulo Sergio (Injury) Vinicius (Injury)

There will not play in Ceará: Gilmar (Injury) Thalisson (Knee Injury) Vinicius Zanocelo (Knee Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 0.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Nautico	34	11	10	13	39:42	-3	43
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	37:42	-5	43

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 29.55%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
14.08.26	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
26.07.26	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
22.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	CRB Maceio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTTWL
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
15.08.26	Ceará - Cuiabá	1:3 ✺
07.08.26	Ceará - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	São Bernardo - Ceará	3:4 ✺
22.07.26	Ceará - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
17.07.26	América Mineiro - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0
14.02.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	0:0
06.04.19	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2
Brazilian Serie B
25.08.17	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
27.05.17	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	0:2
15.10.16	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0

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