Match Info

Serie B - Round 18

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio Rei Pelé (Maceió)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	CRB Maceio		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.33	Watch
	1.90	3.25	3.75
	1.88	3.35	4.05	Watch
	1.95	3.53	4.4
	1.87	3.43	4.23	Watch
	1.97	3.3	4.05
	1.85	3.39	4.32	Watch
	1.89	3.35	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.08)	3.38 ↓ (3.45)	4.14 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CRB Maceio
49.6%

Draw
27.8%

Náutico Capibaribe
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

27%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

23.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CRB Maceio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Capibaribe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CRB Maceio than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with CRB Maceio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

CRB Maceio - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. CRB will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for CRB: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - CRB (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. CRB (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitor Caetano (G) 32. Hereda 22. Bressan 27. Fabio Alemao (C) 36. Lucas Lovat 21. Pedro Castro 8. Crystopher Ribeiro 10. Danielzinho 17. Thiaguinho 28. Mikael 97. Dada Belmonte	1. Muriel Becker (G) 14. Matheus Ribeiro 15. Leo Indio 46. Gustavo Henrique 23. Igor Fernandes 27. Luiz Felipe 8. Wenderson 93. Reginaldo 20. Jean Carlos (C) 11. Victor Andrade 29. Junior Todinho
Substitutes
45. De Lucca 7. Douglas Baggio 23. Fabio Henrique (G) 18. Geovane 16. Guilherme 11. Guilherme Pato 2. Kevin 77. Leo Campos 33. Lyncon 6. Reverson 14. Ruy 20. Vinicius Barata	2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 72. Derek 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 18. Halan 13. Indio 37. Juan Rikelme 19. Kauan Maranhao 60. Luiz Paulo 41. Samuel Felix 34. Wanderson
Coaches
Fabio Matias	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Wenderson 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Mikael (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Matheus Ribeiro ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
60', Junior Todinho ↓, Derek ↑,
63', Hereda ↓, Kevin ↑,
65', Victor Andrade ↓, Kauan Maranhao ↑,
72', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Luiz Paulo ↑,
72', Luiz Felipe ↓, Samuel Felix ↑,
75', Danielzinho ↓, Guilherme Pato ↑,
75', Thiaguinho ↓, Geovane ↑,
81', 1 - 1, Kauan Maranhao ⚽, Jean Carlos (A),
83', 2 - 1, Crystopher Ribeiro ⚽, Dada Belmonte (A),
85', Dada Belmonte 🟨,
85', Bressan ↓, Lyncon ↑,
85', Dada Belmonte ↓, De Lucca ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CRB won 1.

CRB has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Náutico is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, CRB is the team to beat.

There will not play in CRB: Henri (Yellow Cards) Matheus Albino (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Náutico: Arnaldo (Inactive) Betao (Injury) Dodo (Inactive) Jean Carlos (Inactive) Vinicius (Inactive)

There are questionable in Náutico: Paulo Sergio (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, CRB won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:20. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, CRB won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.4:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	49:45	4	51
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

CRB Maceio - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.78%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Náutico Capibaribe - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 28.22%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CRB Maceio
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.26	CRB Maceio - Goiás	2:2 ✺
04.07.26	Londrina - CRB Maceio	5:0 ✺
30.06.26	Botafogo SP - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
21.06.26	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
12.06.26	Atlético Goianiense - CRB Maceio	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TLWTT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.26	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Goiás	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3 ✺
14.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
24.03.24	Náutico Capibaribe - CRB Maceio	1:1
04.02.23	Náutico Capibaribe - CRB Maceio	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
10.08.22	Náutico Capibaribe - CRB Maceio	2:1
27.04.22	CRB Maceio - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2
28.09.21	Náutico Capibaribe - CRB Maceio	1:3
29.06.21	CRB Maceio - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
21.11.20	CRB Maceio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1

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