Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 1

Date: 20 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)


	Ceará		Goiás

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.9	3.1
	2.35	3	3.2	Watch
	2.37	3.07	3.42
	2.37	3.07	3.42
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.33	3.08	3.21
	2.5	3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.05)	3.03 ↓ (3.21)	3.19 ↓ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
39.7%

Draw
30.9%

Goiás
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

28.9%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

28.3%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ceará's form might have worsened.

Goiás has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceará, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Goiás than the current prediction. (-4%)

Ceará - Goiás Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 2. Rai Ramos 42. Matheus Felipe 4. David Ricardo (C) 79. Matheus Bahia 26. Richardson 97. Lourenco 10. Lucas Mugni 11. Aylon 73. Saulo Mineiro 16. Erick Pulga	23. Tadeu (G) 14. Lucas Ribeiro 4. David Braz (C) 37. Messias 20. Diego 5. Wellington 77. Marcao Silva 8. Rafael Gava 6. Sander 7. Paulo Baya 33. Thiago Galhardo
Substitutes
31. Barcelo F. 27. Bruninho 94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 7. Castro F. 99. Guilherme Castilho 77. Janderson 5. Jean Irmer 55. Jonathan Jesus 21. Paulo Victor 40. Ramon Menezes 6. Ramos R. 28. Recalde J.	18. Breno Herculano 12. Cristiano 22. Diego Caito 19. Edson 21. Jhonny Lucas 88. Luiz Henrique 76. Murillo (G) 70. Nathan Melo 17. Pedrinho 11. Torres I. 31. Welliton 3. Yan Souto
Coaches
Vagner Mancini	Marcio Zanardi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', Messias 🟨,
17', Messias ↓, Edson ↑,
17', Saulo Mineiro ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
19', 0 - 1, Paulo Baya ⚽, Thiago Galhardo (A),
21', Wellington 🟨,
28', Thiago Galhardo (Pen),
45+1', 1 - 1, Lourenco (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rafael Gava ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
51', Aylon 🟨,
64', Wellington ↓, Breno Herculano ↑,
64', Lucas Mugni ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
64', Aylon ↓, Janderson ↑,
72', Tadeu 🟨,
79', Breno Herculano 🟨,
80', Guilherme Castilho 🟨,
81', Lourenco ↓, Barcelo F. ↑,
84', Paulo Baya ↓, Cristiano ↑,
84', Thiago Galhardo ↓, Nathan Melo ↑,
90+4', Nathan Melo 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 1.

Ceará is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Goiás is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ceará could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Ceará won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
10.04.24	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
06.04.24	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:1 penalties ✺
30.03.24	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.03.24	Ceará - Itabaiana	2:1 ✺
24.03.24	Treze - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWTWW
- Goiás EC
Brazilian Copa Verde
24.03.24	Goiás - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
20.03.24	Vila Nova - Goiás	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
10.03.24	Goiás - Goiânia	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
06.03.24	Goiás - União Rondonópolis	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
02.03.24	Goiânia - Goiás	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.10.22	Ceará - Goiás	1:1
12.06.22	Goiás - Ceará	1:1
21.01.21	Goiás - Ceará	0:4
27.09.20	Ceará - Goiás	2:2
06.10.19	Ceará - Goiás	0:1
11.05.19	Goiás - Ceará	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
11.11.17	Goiás - Ceará	0:0

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