Match Info

BRAZIL: Catarinense - Round 6

Date: 2 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Brasileirao Play
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Fanatiz


	Náutico Marcílio Dias		Concórdia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	3.2	5
	1.76	3.05	4.6
	1.6	3.42	5.89
	1.65	3.41	5.26	Watch
	1.7	3.1	5
	1.66	3.61	4.9
	1.69	3.15	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.96)	3.28 ↑ (3.14)	5.08 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Marcílio Dias
54.4%

Draw
27.7%

Concórdia
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

28.8%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

23.8%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Marcílio Dias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Marcílio Dias's performance.

Concórdia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Concórdia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (-16.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Náutico Marcílio Dias that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Concórdia than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Concórdia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Náutico Marcílio Dias - Concórdia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Marcílio Dias will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Concórdia will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Erivelton (G) 10. Brendon Sobral 5. Felipe Baiano 11. Geovany Soares 6. Gerson 9. Gustavo Poffo 7. Levi 8. Marquinhos 4. Milani 3. Silvio (C) 2. Victor Guilherme	1. Alexandre Villa (G) 3. Felipe Siedekum 2. Gabriel Biteco 4. Gustavo Brandao 5. Indio 7. Luan 8. Matheus Galdezani 11. Patryck Annes 10. Pericles 6. Rafael Augusto (C) 9. Wilgner
Substitutes
16. Allan Passos 12. Anderson (G) 18. Bonassa 15. Felipe Manoel 22. Felipe Santos 17. Italo Magnata 21. Jeffinho 20. Juninho Tardelli 14. Luan 19. Luan Viana 13. Lucas Costa 24. Luis Fabiano	14. Caio Mores 15. Cristian 16. Eli Junior 19. Felipe Rangel 20. Lipe Lenger 17. Matheus Baseggio 22. Murilo 18. Pedro Alves 13. Pedro Cella 12. Rodrigo Lucas (G) 21. William

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Luan 🟨,
45+1', Luan ↓, Eli Junior ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wilgner ↓, Lipe Lenger ↑,
52', Patryck Annes ↓, Caio Mores ↑,
56', Gerson ↓, Felipe Santos ↑,
56', Brendon Sobral ↓, Luan Viana ↑,
64', Matheus Galdezani ↓, Pedro Cella ↑,
68', Rafael Augusto 🟨,
70', Levi ↓, Juninho Tardelli ↑,
70', Felipe Baiano ↓, Jeffinho ↑,
74', Victor Guilherme 🟨,
78', Gustavo Poffo ↓, Italo Magnata ↑,
79', Alexandre Villa 🟨,
82', Pericles ↓, Felipe Rangel ↑,
86', Silvio 🟨,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
30.01.25	Santa Catarina - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:1 ✺
26.01.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Caravaggio	1:1 ✺
23.01.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
19.01.25	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0 ✺
15.01.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWLT
- Concórdia AC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
29.01.25	Figueirense - Concórdia	4:1 ✺
26.01.25	Concórdia - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
22.01.25	Joinville - Concórdia	2:1 ✺
19.01.25	Criciúma - Concórdia	2:0 ✺
15.01.25	Concórdia - Barra Santa Catarina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
16.11.24	Concórdia - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0
12.11.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Concórdia	1:1
19.10.24	Concórdia - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
17.02.24	Concórdia - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
26.11.23	Concórdia - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:3
19.11.23	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Concórdia	1:1
17.09.23	Concórdia - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:0

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