Match Info

Catarinense - Round 4

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)


	Chapecoense		Náutico Marcílio Dias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.62	3.4	5.3
	1.68	3.52	5.22	Watch
	1.53	3.25	6.5
	1.58	3.48	6.14
	1.52	3.6	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.92)	3.45 ↑ (3.06)	5.83 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
57.7%

Draw
26.5%

Náutico Marcílio Dias
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

29.9%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chapecoense's performance.

Náutico Marcílio Dias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Marcílio Dias might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions

Users Predictions: Chapecoense will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chapecoense will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Santos (G) 27. Camilo Reijers 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 10. Giovanni Augusto (C) 77. Italo 4. Joao Paulo 7. Marcinho 2. Marcos Vinicius 99. Rafael Carvalheira 25. Victor Caetano	1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 10. Cesinha 5. Guilherme Kante 6. Jonathan 7. Jose Carlos 4. Luan 11. Lucas Batatinha 3. Marcelo Sousa 8. Roldan 2. Victor Guilherme (C) 9. Ze Eduardo
Substitutes
14. Carlos 19. David Antunes 97. Enio 26. Everton 22. Higor Meritao 20. Jean Carlos 5. Joao Vitor 21. Kauan 12. Leo Vieira (G) 90. Mailson 8. Robert Conceicao 70. Rubens Ricoldi	12. Erivelton (G) 16. Evandro 19. Felipe Cruz 15. Guilherme Gehring 14. Joao Vitor 18. Miguel Silva 13. Reginaldo 17. Rone

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Joao Paulo 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Marcinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lucas Batatinha ↓, Rone ↑,
64', Roldan ↓, Miguel Silva ↑,
64', Ze Eduardo ↓, Felipe Cruz ↑,
66', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
76', Jonathan ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
77', Italo ↓, Enio ↑,
77', Camilo Reijers ↓, Higor Meritao ↑,
86', 🟨,
87', Marcinho ↓, Robert Conceicao ↑,
87', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 1.

Chapecoense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chapecoense is the team to beat.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Chapecoense - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 47.72%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
14.01.26	Concórdia - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Camboriú - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
06.01.26	Chapecoense - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.11.25	Chapecoense - Atlético Goianiense	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Volta Redonda - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLTWT
- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
15.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0 ✺
07.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Criciúma	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
09.11.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Figueirense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
19.01.25	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
22.09.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Chapecoense	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
07.02.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Chapecoense	2:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
02.09.23	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:2
Copa do Brasil
21.02.23	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Chapecoense	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
12.02.23	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	3:0
05.03.22	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:2

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