Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports, Tigo Sports+


	Nacional Asuncion		Rubio Ñu

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.25	4	Watch
	1.93	3	3.7
	1.9	3.15	4.05
	1.91	3.22	4.71
	2.04	3.14	3.93	Watch
	1.85	3	4.5
	1.89	3.35	4.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.7)	3.16 ↓ (3.5)	4.15 ↓ (4.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
48.5%

Draw
29.3%

Rubio Ñu
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

26.3%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

28.3%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nacional Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Rubio Ñu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rubio Ñu than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Nacional Asuncion - Rubio Ñu Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Rubio Ñu (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rubio Ñu (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Rojas S. (C) 21. Feliu J. 26. Coronel M. 3. Canete Torres A. D. 14. Diaz F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 13. Meza L. 18. Valdez I. 22. Colman Escobar D. J. 27. Prieto R. 9. Benitez H. A.	25. Fragueda F. (G) 2. Ferreira R. 24. Gomez L. 4. Gonzalez J. 5. Alvarez Benitez P. 32. Palacios J. 20. Martinez F. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 8. Rojas R. 36. Gimenez C. 10. Mendieta W. (C)
Substitutes
11. Almeida M. 7. Bailone I. 23. Espinola C. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 32. Garrone M. 19. Gonzales L. 8. Jara F. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 28. Samudio A. 17. Santacruz J. 6. Torales S. 2. Trinidad J.	33. Alborno R. 17. Arzamendia R. 13. Cabanas V. 19. Frean S. 27. Gomez S. 28. Leguizamon A. 38. Manzur G. 40. Perez E. 37. Roldan M. 23. Ruiz Diaz S. 21. Sarquis E. 22. Tales (G)
Coaches
Gimenez F.	Morinigo G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Palacios J. 🟨,
37', Palacios J. ↓, Roldan M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Meza L. ↓, Jara F. ↑,
58', Colman Escobar D. J. ↓, Santacruz J. ↑,
59', Mendieta W. ↓, Leguizamon A. ↑,
71', Santacruz J. 🟨,
77', Diaz F. ↓, Almeida M. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Santacruz J. ⚽, Canete Torres A. D. (A),
80', Gimenez C. ↓, Ruiz Diaz S. ↑,
80', Rojas R. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
86', Valdez I. ↓, Espinola C. ↑,
86', Benitez H. A. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
90+1', Ferreira R. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3.

In recent matches, Nacional has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Rubio Ñu is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rubio Ñu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nacional is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	6	5	2	20:8	12	23
10	Rubio Nu	13	3	3	7	15:24	-9	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
09.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
01.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
26.02.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Nacional Asuncion	2:2 ✺
19.02.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLTTT
- Rubio Ñu
Paraguayan Primera Division
08.03.26	Rubio Ñu - 2 de Mayo	0:1 ✺
02.03.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Rubio Ñu	0:1 ✺
26.02.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.4 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
21.10.17	Nacional Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	1:1
11.08.17	Rubio Ñu - Nacional Asuncion	0:1
28.04.17	Rubio Ñu - Nacional Asuncion	1:2
19.02.17	Nacional Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:3
03.12.16	Nacional Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	3:1
27.08.16	Rubio Ñu - Nacional Asuncion	0:0
06.04.16	Nacional Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	3:1

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