The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Nacional Asuncion 53.3%
Draw 25.7%
Deportivo Recoleta 21%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
57.5%
24.5%
18%
Our Initial ML Estimation
59.4%
23.4%
17.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)
Deportivo Recoleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+6.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Recoleta than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
90.9%
9.1%
0%
Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta Predictions
Users Predictions:
Nacional Asuncion will win
(10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%). Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
30. Rojas S. (G) 23. Espinola C. 22. Melgarejo R. 3. Coronel M. 29. Vargas S. 8. Jara F. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 33. Gaona Lugo O. (C) 13. Meza L. 10. Colman Escobar D. J. 9. Benitez H. A.
13. Toledo O. (G) 2. Echeguren Zarza F. A. 5. Marotta N. 32. Monzon L. 18. Rios P. 36. Ferreira B. 7. Dominguez R. (C) 38. Franco A. 17. Baez W. 25. Martino R. 33. Gonzalez A.
Substitutes
11. Almeida M. 20. Arguello R. 7. Bailone I. 5. Benitez G. 39. Caballero D. 36. Pelozo F. 32. Pumpido F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 17. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 18. Valdez I. 38. Vega T. 35. Villar E. (G)
6. Espinola J. 8. Galeano F. 21. Garay C. 1. Marsengo A. (G) 15. Medina B. 23. Nunez J. 9. Ortiz R. 11. Parzajuk K. 4. Pereira M. 31. Schupp M. 10. Silva A. 24. Vidal T.
Coaches
Bernay V.
Gonzalez J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Baez W. 🟨,
42', Rios P. 🟨,
43', Benitez H. A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Dominguez R. ↓, Espinola J. ↑,
52', Martino R. ↓, Ortiz R. ↑,
53', Baez W. ↓, Schupp M. ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Meza L. ⚽, Espinola C. (A),
67', Franco A. 🟨,
68', Vargas S. ↓, Benitez G. ↑,
76', Benitez H. A. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
76', Meza L. ↓, Santacruz Rodas J. F. ↑,
76', Gonzalez A. ↓, Vidal T. ↑,
79', Ortiz R. ↓, Parzajuk K. ↑,
85', Colman Escobar D. J. ↓, Valdez I. ↑,
85', Jara F. ↓, Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↑,
90+1', Melgarejo R. 🟨,
Preview
A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 5th and 11th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
Nacional has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Recoleta has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Bookmakers give the edge to Nacional for this game.
In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Nacional has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:10 (averaging 1.1:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Nacional against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 5:4 goals (averaging 1.3:1 per game).
Argentina
Paraguay
Usa
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Rojas S. (G) 
Marotta N. 
Pumpido F. 
Silva A. 
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