Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Nacional Asuncion		Sportivo Ameliano

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.2	3.9	Watch
	1.82	3.10	4.00
	1.92	3.15	3.8	Watch
	1.98	3.24	4.39
	1.91	3.36	4.11	Watch
	1.94	3.2	4.2
	1.88	3.32	4.26	Watch
	1.9	3.15	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.12)	3.22 ↑ (3.15)	4.04 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
48.5%

Draw
28.7%

Sportivo Ameliano
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

29.2%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

28.4%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Asuncion's performance.

Sportivo Ameliano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/E Goals, 1st Half - even (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ortiz G. (G) 23. Espinola C. 22. Melgarejo R. 5. Benitez G. 29. Vargas S. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 10. Colman Escobar D. J. 13. Meza L. 8. Jara F. 18. Valdez I. 7. Bailone I.	35. Sanchez A. (G) 13. Peralta R. 5. Benitez H. 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. (C) 15. Rodriguez W. 14. Paez E. 8. Moreira E. 20. Larralde V. 18. Ortiz L. 9. Ocampos C.
Substitutes
11. Almeida M. 20. Arguello R. 39. Caballero D. 31. Cabrera M. 19. Gonzales L. 36. Pelozo F. 27. Prieto R. 32. Pumpido F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 17. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 38. Vega T. 35. Villar E. (G)	4. Aranda P. 24. Ayala L. 3. Baez F. 1. Balbuena J. (G) 6. Benitez J. 34. Benitez M. 25. Bruno L. 32. Camargo G. M. 40. Contrera A. 36. Leon M. 17. Torales R. 7. Vera F.
Coaches
Bernay V.	Nanni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Melgarejo R. ⚽,
45+2', Melgarejo R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Ortiz L. 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Peralta R. ⚽,
59', Paez E. ↓, Ayala L. ↑,
63', Bailone I. ↓, Gonzales L. ↑,
64', Colman Escobar D. J. ↓, Prieto R. ↑,
73', Larralde V. ↓, Camargo G. M. ↑,
73', Ortiz L. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
79', Valdez I. ↓, Pelozo F. ↑,
79', Cardozo Lucena A. ↓, Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↑,
80', Ocampos C. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
80', Moreira E. ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
90+1', Meza L. ↓, Almeida M. ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 3rd and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.

Nacional has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Sportivo Ameliano have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, Nacional is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Nacional in today's match, at odds of 1.77.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Nacional has recorded 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:23 (averaging 0.9:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nacional against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 10:9 goals (averaging 1:0.9 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	6	5	2	20:8	12	23
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Asuncion - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 43.37%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Sportivo Ameliano - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 27.44%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Rubio Ñu - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Cerro Porteño - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
02.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	3:0 ✺
28.08.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Nacional Asuncion	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWLWW
- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Trinidense	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
25.07.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	1:1
20.04.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	1:1
19.02.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1
20.11.25	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	2:0
29.08.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	3:0
04.05.25	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1
22.02.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	2:1

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