Match Info

Paulista A4 - Round 10

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday


	Nacional SP		Penapolense

	1	X	2
	4.55	3.25	1.72
	4.23	3.08	1.83
	5.5	3.54	1.59	Watch
	4	2.9	1.85
	4.76	3.49	1.74
	3.2	3.05	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.37 ↑ (3.2)	3.22 ↑ (3.05)	1.82 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional SP
21%

Draw
28.6%

Penapolense
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

29.9%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

28.6%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nacional SP's form might have worsened.

Penapolense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penapolense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional SP than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional SP, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penapolense than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Penapolense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Nacional SP - Penapolense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
79', 0 - 1, ⚽,
90+1', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista B and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A4 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Nacional SP is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Penapolense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Penapolense could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nacional SP won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Nacional SP won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
07.03.26	Comercial SP - Nacional SP	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Nacional SP - Taquaritinga	0:4 ✺
28.02.26	Tanabi - Nacional SP	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Nacional SP - Lemense FC	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Nacional SP - Jacareí	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- CA Penapolense
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
07.03.26	Penapolense - Inter de Bebedouro	0:0 ✺
04.03.26	Lemense FC - Penapolense	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Penapolense - VOCEM	0:0 ✺
25.02.26	Taquaritinga - Penapolense	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	São Caetano - Penapolense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
19.02.25	Penapolense - Nacional SP	0:3
03.02.24	Nacional SP - Penapolense	1:1

Nacional SP - Penapolense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide