Match Info

Paulista A4 - Round 9

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday


	Comercial SP		Nacional SP

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.05	4.15
	1.77	3.16	4.42
	1.8	3.22	4.43
	1.83	2.88	4.4
	1.78	3.13	4.55
	2.08	2.85	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.05)	3.05 ↑ (3)	4.21 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comercial SP
48.9%

Draw
29.6%

Nacional SP
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

29.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

25.6%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comercial SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Comercial SP's performance.

Nacional SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nacional SP might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Comercial SP that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional SP than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional SP could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Comercial SP - Nacional SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, ⚽,
58', 🟥,
86', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista B).

Recent form of Comercial SP has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nacional SP is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Comercial SP will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
04.03.26	São Caetano - Comercial SP	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Comercial SP - Lemense FC	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Colorado Caieiras - Comercial SP	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Comercial SP - Barretos	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Grêmio Desportivo São-Carlense - Comercial SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWLL
- Nacional SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
04.03.26	Nacional SP - Taquaritinga	0:4 ✺
28.02.26	Tanabi - Nacional SP	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Nacional SP - Lemense FC	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Nacional SP - Jacareí	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	VOCEM - Nacional SP	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLT

Comercial SP - Nacional SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide