Match Info

BRAZIL: Paraibano - Round 5

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jose Cavalcanti (Patos)


	Nacional de Patos		Auto Esporte

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.04	3.28
				Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.32)	3.12 ↓ (3.21)	3.19 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional de Patos
42.5%

Draw
29.1%

Auto Esporte
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

28.3%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

29.3%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional de Patos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Auto Esporte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional de Patos than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auto Esporte than the current prediction. (+3%)

Nacional de Patos - Auto Esporte Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Edu (G) 3. Andre Santos (C) 6. Caique 11. Daniel Alagoano 26. Gean 17. Itallo Melo 29. Kaio Henrique 5. Lencina K. 2. Luis Felipe 27. Robinho 9. Vitor Alagoano	1. Gabriel Lima (G) 3. Alex Santos 7. Betinho 6. Claudevan 2. Ferreira D. 11. Gliniedson 10. Guara E. 9. Pedrao 8. Rafael Tchuca 5. Ray Sape 4. Wesley Pereira (C)
Substitutes
8. Beckham 23. Chinha 4. Danilo Antonio 15. David Goiana 13. Deivao 21. Gabriel Rocha 24. Luan 19. Mikael 22. Thawan (G) 1. Tiago Indio (G)	17. Anderson 12. Augusto (G) 16. Doido de Mandacaru 14. Jhon Kennedy 15. Jovani 18. Pedrinho 13. Siri Vitor

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Gliniedson ↓, Doido de Mandacaru ↑,
8', Lencina K. 🟨,
10', Rafael Tchuca 🟨,
45+4', Ferreira D. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Pedrao ↓, Anderson ↑,
46', Caique ↓, Gabriel Rocha ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Robinho ⚽,
51', Rafael Tchuca ↓, Jhon Kennedy ↑,
57', 2 - 0, Vitor Alagoano ⚽,
58', Guara E. 🟨,
60', 3 - 0, Lencina K. ⚽,
66', 3 - 1, Ray Sape ⚽,
69', Itallo Melo ↓, Mikael ↑,
69', Edu 🟨,
69', 🟨,
73', Vitor Alagoano ↓, Beckham ↑,
75', Alex Santos 🟥,
77', Guara E. ↓, Siri Vitor ↑,
83', Daniel Alagoano ↓, Danilo Antonio ↑,
84', Anderson 🟨,
90+3', Ray Sape 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 9 in the zone Relegation ~ Paraibano 2 and 8).

Nacional de Patos is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Auto Esporte is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Auto Esporte could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Nacional de Patos have a series of guest games.

Nacional de Patos will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Nacional de Patos won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional de Patos won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional de Patos
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
13.02.25	Serra Branca - Nacional de Patos	2:2 ✺
08.02.25	Sousa - Nacional de Patos	3:0 ✺
01.02.25	Campinense - Nacional de Patos	2:1 ✺
26.01.25	Esporte de Patos - Nacional de Patos	2:2 ✺
22.01.25	Nacional de Patos - Picuiense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLLTT
- Auto Esporte Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
13.02.25	Pombal - Auto Esporte	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Picuiense - Auto Esporte	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	Auto Esporte - Esporte de Patos	2:3 ✺
26.01.25	Auto Esporte - Sousa	0:0 ✺
22.01.25	Auto Esporte - Campinense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
24.01.23	Nacional de Patos - Auto Esporte	2:1
21.03.18	Auto Esporte - Nacional de Patos	1:1

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