Match Info

Super League - Round 30

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday


	Nairobi United		Luanda Villa

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.7	5.62
				Watch
	1.33	4.86	8.1	Watch
	1.7	3.1	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.7)	3.89 ↑ (3.1)	6.24 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nairobi United
61.2%

Draw
23.9%

Luanda Villa
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

29%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

28.6%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nairobi United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nairobi United's performance.

Luanda Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nairobi United than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nairobi United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luanda Villa than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Machaka E. ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Ouya F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 11).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Nairobi United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nairobi United is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Nairobi United won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Nairobi United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nairobi United
Kenyan Super League
04.05.25	Kibera Black Stars - Nairobi United	1:0 ✺
Kenyan FKF Cup
01.05.25	Nairobi United - Kakamega Homeboyz	2:0 ✺
Kenyan Super League
26.04.25	Vihiga United - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
23.04.25	Migori Youth - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Nairobi United - MCF	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWWWT
- Luanda Villa FC
Kenyan Super League
11.05.25	Mombasa Elite - Luanda Villa	3:1 ✺
04.05.25	Luanda Villa - Mombasa Stars	2:0 ✺
20.04.25	Nzoia United - Luanda Villa	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Luanda Villa - APS Bomet	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Kibera Black Stars - Luanda Villa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Super League
12.01.25	Luanda Villa - Nairobi United	1:2
09.03.24	Nairobi United - Luanda Villa	2:1
19.11.23	Luanda Villa - Nairobi United	1:1

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