Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Bonacina K. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	Q League Asia, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belgium	DAZN 2
Bolivia	ESPN 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network, TLN, VIVA
Chile	ESPN 3
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	DAZN, TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 3
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport Open Baltic
Finland	DAZN, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
India	ZEE5
Indonesia	Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 3, Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 3
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN 3
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV, Thmanyah
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	DAZN, TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	BBC Alba, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, NBC Universo, Paramount+, Peacock, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3


	Napoli		Bologna

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.83	3.70	4.10
	1.82	3.45	4.4	Watch
	1.86	3.7	4.77
	1.9	3.66	4.31	Watch
	1.82	3.55	4.7
	1.83	3.65	4.56
	1.81	3.65	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.69)	3.62 ↓ (3.7)	4.48 ↓ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
52.2%

Draw
26.4%

Bologna
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

25.6%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

24.8%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Bologna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Napoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.1%	9.5%	6.3%

Napoli - Bologna Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (2.03) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Bologna (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Napoli (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Napoli (1.88) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (53 of 63 users predict this - 84.13%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.11% – 93.15%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Napoli will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Bologna (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 16. Marin R. 37. Spinazzola L. 6. Gilmour B. 68. Lobotka S. 11. De Bruyne K. 21. Politano M. 19. Hojlund R. 26. Vergara A.	25. Pessina M. (G) 2. Holm E. 14. Heggem T. 3. Theate A. 33. Miranda J. 4. Pobega T. 19. Ferguson L. (C) 8. Amondarain M. 10. Bernardeschi F. 91. Piccoli R. 28. Cambiaghi N.
Substitutes
5. Badiashile B. 31. Beukema S. 14. Contini N. (G) 7. David Neres 2. Favasuli C. 70. Lang N. 20. Lucca L. 17. Olivera M. 12. Pugliese C. (G)	23. Alhassane R. 16. Casale N. 29. De Silvestri L. 22. Enem J. 5. Fauske Helland E. 82. Franceschelli M. (G) 18. Libra M. 11. Mbangula S. 6. Moro N. 21. Odgaard J. 1. Skorupski L. (G) 41. Vitik M.
Coaches
Allegri M.	Tedesco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Amondarain M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vergara A. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
46', Politano M. ↓, Favasuli C. ↑,
58', Pobega T. ↓, Libra M. ↑,
58', Piccoli R. ↓, Odgaard J. ↑,
66', Amondarain M. ↓, Moro N. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Lobotka S. ⚽, Favasuli C. (A),
75', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
82', Cambiaghi N. ↓, Mbangula S. ↑,
82', Bernardeschi F. ↓, Enem J. ↑,
88', De Bruyne K. ↓, Olivera M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 2.

Napoli has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bologna has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Napoli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Napoli is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Alisson Santos (Muscle Injury) Anguissa F. (Muscle Injury) Buongiorno A. (Knee Injury) Giovane (Groin Injury) Marianucci L. (Knee Injury) McTominay S. (Heart Problems) Meret A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Bologna: Dovbyk A. (Muscle Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Thigh Injury) Orsolini R. (Injury) Zortea N. (Hip Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 42:23. (average 2.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:13. (average 2.3:1.3).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Napoli: 3.78% Bologna: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3:6	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Napoli - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.09.26	Inter Milan - Napoli	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Napoli - Como	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Genoa - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
12.08.26	Napoli - Aris	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWW
- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
06.09.26	Bologna - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Atalanta - Bologna	1:0 ✺
24.08.26	Bologna - Lazio	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Bologna	1:0 ✺
25.07.26	Bologna - Iraklis	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
11.05.26	Napoli - Bologna	2:3
Italian Super Cup
22.12.25	Napoli - Bologna	2:0
Italian Serie A
09.11.25	Bologna - Napoli	2:0
07.04.25	Bologna - Napoli	1:1
25.08.24	Napoli - Bologna	3:0
11.05.24	Napoli - Bologna	0:2
24.09.23	Bologna - Napoli	0:0

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