Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Premier League
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, Q League Asia
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	Napoli		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.75	1.67
	5.00	3.75	1.68
	5.60	3.75	1.64
	5.56	3.90	1.70
	6.15	4.1	1.6	Watch
	5.45	3.85	1.68
	5.73	3.84	1.68
	5.40	3.90	1.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.52 ↑ (4.08)	3.86 ↑ (3.73)	1.67 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
17.4%

Draw
24.9%

Arsenal
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

25.5%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

26.3%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Napoli's form might have worsened.

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Napoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.7%	10.2%	84.1%

Napoli - Arsenal Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Arsenal (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.93) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.75 - Napoli (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Arsenal (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Arsenal (1.14) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (74 of 88 users predict this - 84.09%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.45% – 91.73%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Arsenal (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 16. Marin R. 17. Olivera M. 11. De Bruyne K. 6. Gilmour B. 68. Lobotka S. 21. Politano M. 19. Hojlund R. 27. Alisson Santos	1. Raya D. (G) 4. White B. 15. Konsa E. 6. Gabriel 5. Hincapie P. 23. Merino M. 41. Rice D. 7. Saka B. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 10. Eze E. 14. Gyokeres V.
Substitutes
5. Badiashile B. 31. Beukema S. 14. Contini N. (G) 7. David Neres 2. Favasuli C. 20. Lucca L. 32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 37. Spinazzola L. 26. Vergara A.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 39. Bruno Guimaraes 33. Calafiori R. 56. Dowman M. 29. Havertz K. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 20. Madueke N. 30. Meslier I. (G) 89. Salmon M. 17. Tzolis C. 36. Zubimendi M.
Coaches
Allegri M.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Gilmour B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Meret A. ↓, Milinkovic-Savic V. ↑,
58', Politano M. ↓, Favasuli C. ↑,
58', Alisson Santos ↓, Vergara A. ↑,
66', Merino M. ↓, Bruno Guimaraes ↑,
66', Eze E. ↓, Tzolis C. ↑,
73', Gyokeres V. ↓, Havertz K. ↑,
73', Saka B. ↓, Madueke N. ↑,
75', 0 - 1, Odegaard M. ⚽, Tzolis C. (A),
76', Hojlund R. ↓, David Neres ↑,
77', Lobotka S. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
82', White B. ↓, Zubimendi M. ↑,
85', Lucca L. 🟨,
90+1', Odegaard M. 🟨,

Preview

Napoli has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arsenal is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Napoli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Arsenal has had a series of home games.

In this match, Arsenal is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Buongiorno A. (Knee Injury) Giovane (Groin Injury) Marianucci L. (Knee Injury) McTominay S. (Heart Problems)

There will not play in Arsenal: Mosquera C. (Muscle Injury) Saliba W. (Back Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Arsenal: 11.4% Napoli: 1.31%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	1:0	1	3
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
05.09.26	Inter Milan - Napoli	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Napoli - Como	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Genoa - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
12.08.26	Napoli - Aris	6:2 ✺
05.08.26	Napoli - Osasuna	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWWW
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
06.09.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Aston Villa - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
21.08.26	Arsenal - Coventry City	3:0 ✺
English FA Community Shield
16.08.26	Arsenal - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.08.26	Arsenal - Como	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
18.04.19	Napoli - Arsenal	0:1
11.04.19	Arsenal - Napoli	2:0
UEFA Champions League
11.12.13	Napoli - Arsenal	2:0
01.10.13	Arsenal - Napoli	2:0
Emirates Cup
03.08.13	Arsenal - Napoli	2:2

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