Match Info

Super League - Round 11

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Markaziy Stadium (Qarshi)

Referee: Nazhafaliev A. (Uzb)


	Nasaf Qarshi		Navbahor Namangan

	1	X	2
	2.48	3.05	2.62
	3.88	3.4	2.05
	3.21	3.16	2.18	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.5
	2.6	3.12	2.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.73)	3.13 ↑ (3.06)	2.42 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nasaf Qarshi
31.7%

Draw
29.8%

Navbahor Namangan
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

30.1%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

30%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nasaf Qarshi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Navbahor Namangan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nasaf Qarshi than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Navbahor Namangan than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Nasaf Qarshi - Navbahor Namangan Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Nasaf (2.32) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nasaf (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nematov A. (G) 4. Komilov A. 92. Eshmurodov U. (C) 22. Abdunazarov D. 23. Murtazoyev D. 14. Mukhitdinov S. 15. Rustamov O. 6. Bakhromov S. 8. Abdirakhmatov Z. 20. Otubanjo Y. 10. Abdikholikov B.	1. Yusupov U. (C) 22. Adkhamzoda U. 44. Chichinadze A. 4. Mamatkazin I. 5. Komilov D. 2. Mirsaidov S. 7. Jiyanov R. 13. Teidi B. 8. Kholmatov D. 23. Ilic V. 97. Alex Fernandes
Substitutes
27. Berdirahmonov Y. 33. Khalilov B. 21. Muratbaev S. (G) 82. Numonov A. (G) 76. Sadullayev Z. 40. Soatov B. 99. Sokari K. 80. Usmonov D.	6. Abdurakhmonov S. 70. Gulomov A. 28. Kati K. 10. Komilov S. 18. Musaxonov I. 3. Rakhimjonov Z. 35. Rakhimov V. (G) 20. Ruziev K. 77. Usmonov M.
Coaches
Berdiev R.	Kapadze T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Ilic V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Komilov A. ↓, Berdirahmonov Y. ↑,
72', Abdikholikov B. 🟨,
74', Teidi B. ↓, Ruziev K. ↑,
74', Adkhamzoda U. ↓, Gulomov A. ↑,
86', Mirsaidov S. ↓, Usmonov M. ↑,
86', Ilic V. ↓, Kati K. ↑,
88', Otubanjo Y. ↓, Usmonov D. ↑,
88', Abdirakhmatov Z. ↓, Khalilov B. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nasaf won 4.

Nasaf has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Navbahor is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nasaf won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 0.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Nasaf won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.9:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39:21	18	44
6	Nasaf Qarshi	22	9	7	6	33:21	12	34

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nasaf Qarshi
Uzbek League
28.04.26	Pakhtakor - Nasaf Qarshi	2:2 ✺
23.04.26	Nasaf Qarshi - Lokomotiv Tashkent	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Neftchi Fargona - Nasaf Qarshi	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Nasaf Qarshi - Buxoro	1:1 ✺
08.04.26	Kokand 1912 - Nasaf Qarshi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLTT
- Navbahor Namangan
Uzbek League
29.04.26	Bunyodkor - Navbahor Namangan	2:1 ✺
23.04.26	Navbahor Namangan - Sogdiana Jizzakh	1:1 ✺
17.04.26	Lokomotiv Tashkent - Navbahor Namangan	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Navbahor Namangan - Surkhon Termez	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Andijan - Navbahor Namangan	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uzbek League
30.10.25	Navbahor Namangan - Nasaf Qarshi	0:0
15.06.25	Nasaf Qarshi - Navbahor Namangan	1:0
14.09.24	Navbahor Namangan - Nasaf Qarshi	0:1
30.06.24	Nasaf Qarshi - Navbahor Namangan	3:2
30.10.23	Navbahor Namangan - Nasaf Qarshi	0:1
07.05.23	Nasaf Qarshi - Navbahor Namangan	0:0
Uzbek Cup
30.10.22	Navbahor Namangan - Nasaf Qarshi	1:2 ET

Nasaf Qarshi - Navbahor Namangan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide